RCEP区域内中国海洋高科技产业出口效率及前景——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究  

Export Efficiency and Prospect of China′s Marine High-tech Industry in RCEP Region:Empirical research based on stochastic frontier gravity model

作　　者：刘曙光[1,2] 刘芳潇[1] LIU Shuguang;LIU Fangxiao(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao266100,China;Ocean Development Research Institute,Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences,Ministry of Education,Qingdao266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛266100 [2]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地海洋发展研究院,青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2023年第5期80-89,共10页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下的海洋强国建设方略研究”(18VSJ067);中国工程科技发展战略山东研究院咨询研究项目“山东与日韩科技合作战略研究”(912088070)。

摘　　要：海洋经济发展是海洋强国战略目标实现的关键内容,为海洋强国建设提供基础动力。文章运用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易指数分析法,计算出口贸易拓展空间(TS)和海洋高科技产品进口依赖度(IRCA)两项指标,结合波士顿矩阵分析法研究中国在RCEP自贸区内海洋高科技产业出口贸易前景。研究结果表明,中国与RCEP成员国的海洋高科技产品贸易前景光明,有较大贸易拓展空间,但是在不同海洋高科技产品细分市场上的具体情况存在较大差异。此外随机前沿引力模型结果表明,整体而言中国经济规模以及RCEP自贸区其他成员国经济规模对中国海洋高科技产品出口贸易存在显著促进作用。RCEP正式生效后将为中国海洋高科技产品贸易带来战略机遇,中国应采取相应措施,提升国内海洋产品产业和企业竞争力,扩大中国海洋产业尤其是海洋高科技产业贸易,大力提升我国海洋经济强国能力,积极寻求我国海洋经济强国道路。The development of marine economy is the key content to realize the strategic goal of marine power,which provides basic impetus for the construction of marine power.In this paper,the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade index analysis method are used to calculate the export trade expansion space(TS)and the import dependence of marine high-tech products(IRCA),and the Boston matrix analysis method is used to study the export trade prospect of China's marine high-tech industry in RCEP.The research results showed that China and RCEP member countries have a bright future in the trade of marine high-tech products,and there is a large space for trade expansion,but there are great differences in the specific conditions of different marine high-tech product segments.In addition,the results of stochastic frontier gravity model showed that China's economic scale and the economic scale of other members of the RCEP free trade zone have a positive role in promoting China's export trade of marine high-tech products overall.The formal entry into force of RCEP will bring strategic opportunities for China's marine high-tech products trade.China should take corresponding measures to enhance the competitiveness of domestic marine products industry and enterprises,expand China's marine industry,especially marine high-tech industry trade and actively seek the road of China's marine economic power.

关 键 词：《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》 海洋经济发展 海洋高科技产业 贸易前景 时变随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6[天文地球—海洋科学] P74