防疫关键期公共交通供需冲突图模型研究  

Research on the Conflict Between Supply and Demand of Public Transit in the Critical Period of Epidemic Prevention Based on Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

作　　者：包渊秋 金辉 吴特兰 杨晓光 徐辉[1] 李晋 Bao Yuanqiu;Jin Hui;Wu Telan;Yang Xiaoguang;Xu Hui;Li Jin(CCDI(Suzhou)Exploration&Design Consultant Co.,Ltd.,Suzhou 215123,China;School of Rail Transportation,Soochow University,Suzhou 215131,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]悉地(苏州)勘察设计顾问有限公司,江苏苏州215123 [2]苏州大学轨道交通学院,江苏苏州215131 [3]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2023年第3期46-54,共9页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52072264);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52002261);同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(K202105)。

摘　　要：在疫情轻度蔓延的防疫关键期,公共交通系统为城市出行提供基本的保障。为平衡防疫关键期公交运营绩效与服务品质,从服务供需匹配的角度,研究公交供给与乘客需求的动态博弈关系。针对供需双方6种策略构成的冲突状态,构建公交供需冲突图模型。利用优序图法分析冲突双方策略状态的相对偏好,获得偏好排序。面向不同类型的冲突稳定性,分析公交供需稳态。围绕苏州公交展开实例分析,通过问卷调查确立公交供需双方对不同策略的偏好。发现公交供需的纳什稳态是供给方采取削减所有线路一半班次并停运隔离区公交的策略,需求方则采取非必要不使用公交的策略。研究可为防疫关键期公交服务策略的制定提供科学依据,促进特殊事件下公交供需冲突与供需平衡态的实现。In the critical period of epidemic prevention when a few infection cases occurred or the epidemics spread slightly in the city,public transit system offers the basic guarantee for urban trips.To ensure public transit operation performance and service quality during the critical period of epidemic prevention,the paper studies the dynamic game relationship between public transport supply and passenger demand from the perspective of service supply and demand matching.Aiming at the conflict states composed by the six strategies of the public transit provider and user in the critical period of epidemic prevention,a conflict graph model was constructed with the consideration of the balance and dynamic game between public transit providers and users.With sequence diagram,the relative preference of the decision-makers was ranked to the feasible states.For different types of conflict stabilities,the steady states were analyzed of the public transit provider and user.Case analysis was conducted on public transit of Suzhou to collect the preference of transit provider and user to different strategies via questionnaire.It is found that Nash steady state of public transit supply and demand is identified when the provider cuts transit shifts by 50%and stops transit service in isolation area,while the user stops unnecessary transit trips.The research provides scientific insights on public transit strategy in the critical period of epidemic prevention,conciliating the conflicts between transit supply and demand under special events for new balance.

关 键 词：公共交通 运营管理 防疫关键期 供需平衡 冲突图模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]