城市制造业升级如何影响流动劳动力的住房租购选择?  

How does Urban Manufacturing Upgrading Affect the Housing Tenure Choice of Migrant Laborer?

作　　者：闫珍 YAN Zhen(School of Public Administration,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《消费经济》2023年第2期45-56,共12页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(18BJY223)。

摘　　要：制造业升级对流动劳动力就业和家庭消费的影响是全面而深刻的。文章基于2013—2014年、2016—2017年的中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,从城市层面探讨制造业升级对流动劳动力住房租购选择的影响。研究结果表明:(1)城市制造业升级降低了流动劳动力在流入地购买住房的概率,使得流动劳动力更倾向于在当地租赁住房;以试点城市制造业产业政策作为工具变量进行内生性检验后发现该结果依然稳健。(2)异质性分析发现,城市制造业升级使得低学历、常规性工作、制造业和低端服务业就业的流动劳动力更倾向于在流入地租赁住房。(3)采用中介效应模型和广义结构方程模型分析证实,制造业升级可以通过降低流动劳动力的就业稳定性、提高城市住房价格涨幅使流动劳动力更倾向于在流入地租赁住房。文章建议地方政府应重视制造业升级对流动劳动力住房租购选择的影响,在持续推动制造业升级的同时满足流动劳动力的差异化住房需求。The upgrading of manufacturing industry will have a comprehensive and profound impact on the employment of migrant labor and their household consumption.Based on the survey data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2013 to 2014 and 2016 to 2017,this paper analyzes the impact of manufacturing upgrading on the migrant labor'housing tenure choice from the urban level.Some research results are obtained.(1)The upgrading of urban manufacturing industry has reduced the probability of migrant labor purchasing housing in the inflow area and made migrant labor more inclined to rent housing in the local area.Using the manufacturing industry policy of pilot cities as a tool variable to conduct an endogenous test,the result is still stable.(2)Using the heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the upgrading of manufacturing industry makes migrant labor with low education,regular work,manufacturing and low-end service industries choose to enter the housing rental market on the job site.(3)Through the intermediary effect model and generalized structural equation model,it is confirmed that the upgrading of the manufacturing industry could reduce the employment stability of the migrant labor and improve the urban housing price increase,making the migrant labor more inclined to rent housing in the inflow area.This paper suggests that local governments should pay attention to the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing industry on the choice of migrant labor's housing tenure choice,and meet the differentiated housing needs of migrant labor while continuously promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：制造业升级 流动劳动力 住房租购选择 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]