国际股市对中国股市风险溢出的叠加效应研究——基于FNAC-ΔCoES模型  

Research on the Superposition Effect of Risk Spillovers from International Stock Markets to China:Based on the FNAC-delta CoES Model

作　　者：曹洁 雷良海[2] 雷其然 Cao Jie;Lei Lianghai;Lei Qiran(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Yancheng Teachers University,Yancheng 224002;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093;Shanghai Orient Securities Capital Investment Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200010)

机构地区：[1]盐城师范学院数学与统计学院,盐城224002 [2]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [3]上海东方证券资本投资有限公司,上海200010

出　　处：《管理评论》2023年第3期49-60,共12页Management Review

基　　金：江苏省高等学校自然科学研究面上项目(20KJB110020);上海市科学技术委员会软科学重点课题(18692103000)。

摘　　要：为了考察多个国际股票市场对中国股票市场风险溢出的叠加效应,将二维ΔCoES拓展至多维ΔCoES,并基于完全嵌套阿基米德Copula(FNAC)推导出多维ΔCoES的显式解,同时给出了风险溢出叠加效应的度量公式和显著性检验方法。实证研究结果显示:两个国际股市同时发生风险时,对中国股市的风险溢出存在显著的、非线性的叠加效应,但这种叠加效应不一定会随着陷入风险的国际股市数量的继续增多而持续加强;此外,通过对比不同国际股市组合下的风险溢出叠加效应发现,欧洲股票市场对叠加效应的影响相对更大;最后,鲁棒性检验结果显示,FNAC-ΔCoES模型具有良好的稳健性。To investigate the superposition effect of risk spillovers from multiple international stock markets to China,this paper extends the two-dimensional delta CoES to multi-dimensional delta CoES,and derives its explicit solution based on the fully nested Archmedean Copula(FNAC).Then the measurement formula and significance test method of the superposition effect of risk spillover are given.The empirical results show that:when two international stock markets are at risk at the same time,there is a significant and non-linear superposition effect on risk spillovers from them to China’s stock market,but the superposition effect does not necessarily continue to strengthen with the increasing number of international stock markets at risk.In addition,by comparing the superposition effect of risk spillovers from different international stock market combinations,we find that European stock markets have the greatest impact on the superposition effect.Finally,the results of a robustness test show that the FNAC-delta CoES model is robust.

关 键 词：风险溢出 叠加效应 完全嵌套阿基米德Copula ΔCoES 股票市场 

分 类 号：F831.51[经济管理—金融学]