一种改进灰色GM(1,1)模型在矿区沉降预报中的应用  

Application of an improved grey GM(1,1)model in mining subsidence prediction

作　　者：刘建明 宁卫远 王乾 赵翩翩 Liu Jianming;Ning Weiyuan;Wang Qian;Zhao Pianpian(Henan Institute of Geophysical Space Information,Zhengzhou 450009,China;Shandong Gold Group Penglai Mining Co.,Ltd.,Yantai 265261,China;Eco-environmental Geological Service Center of Henan Provincial Geological Bureau,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地球物理空间信息研究院,河南郑州450009 [2]山东黄金集团蓬莱矿业有限公司,山东烟台265621 [3]河南省地质局生态环境地质服务中心,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《能源与环保》2023年第5期117-120,126,共5页CHINA ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2021M690361)。

摘　　要：针对矿区存在不均匀沉降现象,提出了一种马尔可夫-残差灰色GM(1,1)预报方法,推导了新方法建立模型的数学过程,基于新方法对矿区长期监测沉降数据进行预报。结果表明,2020年预测值最大残差为2.64 mm,最小残差为0.87 mm,2021年预测值最大残差为2.61 mm,最小残差为0.96 mm;2020年预测值平均残差为1.73 mm,残差RMS值、STD值分别为1.86、0.73 mm;2021年预测值平均残差为1.57 mm,残差RMS值、STD值分别为1.68、0.65 mm,新方法在矿区沉降预报中具有较高的精度和可靠性,长期监测预报结果可为矿区结构变形提供参考,为安全开采提供依据。In view of the phenomenon of uneven settlement in the mining area,this paper proposes a Markov-residual grey GM(1,1)prediction method,deduces the mathematical process of the new method to establish the model,and forecasts the long-term monitoring settlement data of the mining area based on the new method.The experimental results show that the maximum residual of the predicted value in 2020 is 2.64 mm,the minimum residual is 0.87 mm,the maximum residual of the predicted value in 2021 is 2.61 mm,and the minimum residual is 0.96 mm;the average residual of the predicted value in 2020 is 1.73 mm,and the residual RMS value and STD value are 1.86 mm and 0.73 mm respectively;the average residual of the predicted value in 2021 is 1.57 mm,and the residual RMS value and STD value are 1.68 mm and 0.65 mm respectively.The new method has high accuracy and reliability in the settlement prediction of the mining area.The long-term monitoring and prediction results can provide a reference for the structural deformation of the mining area and provide a basis for safe mining.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 马尔可夫 矿区沉降预报 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]