基于灰色预测理论和最优置信限法的核主泵机械密封可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of mechanical seals for nuclear main pump based on grey prediction theory and optimum confidence limit method

作　　者：高灯 孙见君[1] GAO Deng;SUN Jianjun(School of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学机械电子工程学院,南京210037

出　　处：《流体机械》2023年第5期84-91,共8页Fluid Machinery

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB2000800)。

摘　　要：为了解决无失效数据情形下核主泵机械密封的可靠度评估问题,分析了大亚湾核主泵机械密封的运行数据,确定了其可靠度分布;利用MATLAB求取了定时截尾时间,建立了结合灰色预测理论和最优置信限法的可靠度分析模型;预测了无失效数据下核主泵机械密封的可靠度。研究表明:所建模型可以有效评估核主泵机械密封的可靠度,且在同等的置信水平下,形状参数范围已知时计算出的可靠度与真实值之间的相对误差较形状参数未知时降低10%。研究成果对无失效数据下核主泵机械密封的可靠性分析具有指导意义。In order to solve the reliability evaluation problem of the mechanical seal in the nuclear main pump under the condition of zero-failure data,the operation data of mechanical seal in Daya Bay nuclear main pump was analyzed and its reliability distribution was determined.The timing cutoff time was obtained using MATLAB and a reliability analysis model combining grey prediction theory and optimal confidence limit method was established.The reliability of the mechanical seal in the nuclear main pump under the condition of zero-failure data was predicted.Results show that the present model could evaluate the reliability of the mechanical seal in the nuclear main pump effectively.Besides,under the same confidence degree,the relative error between the predicted reliability and the true reliability when the shape parameter range is known is reduced by about 10%compared with that when the shape parameter range is unknown.The research results provide guidance for the reliability analysis of mechanical seals in the nuclear main pump under the condition of zero-failure data.

关 键 词：无失效数据 灰色预测 置信限法 核主泵 机械密封 可靠性 

分 类 号：TH136[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]