职工养老保险征缴对我国居民消费的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of the Collection of Basic Pension Insurance for Employees on Residents’Consumption in China

作　　者：周心怡 ZHOU Xinyi

机构地区：[1]北京大学教育学院/北京大学中国教育财政科学研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2023年第2期47-61,共15页Social Security Studies

摘　　要：提升征缴水平是我国降低名义缴费率、增强城镇职工养老保险可持续性的基础,同时征缴率变化也会影响居民消费。在国内人口老龄化不断加深、扩内需促消费的背景下,征缴水平和居民消费之间的关系成为一个重要的研究议题。本文构建了一个包含暂时性收入冲击的异质性主体不完全市场模型,通过政策模拟考察了名义缴费率和征缴力度的不同组合情形对工作期和退休期居民消费的影响,并尝试分析名义缴费率可能的降低空间。结果表明,在降低名义缴费率的情形下,随着征缴力度逐步提高,全社会的征缴率水平会得到提升。在一定范围内降低名义缴费率、提升征缴率的政策将有助于提高居民消费,尤其能够促进老年群体消费,释放“银发经济”活力,同时还将有利于调节行业间的收入差距。据此,建议通过持续推进税务机关征收改革、提高政策扶持的精准度,进一步提升职工养老保险的征缴水平。Raising the collection level is the basis of reducing the nominal payment rate and enhancing the sustainability of the basic pension insurance for urban employees.Meanwhile,the change of the collection level will also have a certain impact on residents'consumption.At the same time,the change of the collection level will also have a certain impact on residents'consumption.Especially under the context of the deepening degree of population aging and the greater consumption potential of the elderly,the relationship between the level of collection and residents'consumption has become an important issue.In view of this,this paper builds a temporary income impact of heterogeneous subject incomplete market model.Policy simulation examines the different nominal payment rate and the combination of situation of the influence of the young and elderly consumption,and try to discuss the nominal payment rate may reduce the space.The results show that under the circumstance of reducing the nominal contribution rate,the collection rate of the whole society will be improved with the law enforcement of the whole society.The policy of reducing the nominal contribution rate and increasing the collection rate within a certain range will help increase household consumption,especially the consumption of the elderly,release the vitality of the"silver economy",and to some extent help adjust the income gap between industries.Therefore,it is suggested to further improve the collection rate of basic pension insurance for employees by continuously promoting the reform of tax authority collection and improving the accuracy of policy support.

关 键 词：城镇职工养老保险 征缴率 名义缴费率 居民消费 征管体制 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F126.1