基于改进演化博弈模型的网络防御决策方法  

Network Defense Decision-making Method Based on Improved Evolutionary Game Model

作　　者：马润年[1] 张恩宁 王刚[1] 马宇峰 翁江 MA Runnian;ZHANG Enning;WANG Gang;MA Yufeng;WENG Jiang(Institute of Telecommunication Engineering,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710077,China;Information and Communication Institute Experimental Training Base,National University of Defense Technology,Xi’an 710106,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学信息与导航学院,西安710077 [2]国防科技大学通信学院试验训练基地,西安710106

出　　处：《电子与信息学报》2023年第6期1970-1980,共11页Journal of Electronics & Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61902426)。

摘　　要：针对网络防御决策的误差干扰和实时响应问题,该文提出一种改进演化博弈模型(IEGM)和网络防御决策方法。首先,借鉴经典伺服系统模型,用微分假设量化表示防御方对攻击策略的短期预测效应,加快模型收敛速度,提升防御决策效率。其次,分析攻防博弈中的误差产生机理,量化定义网络防御中的观测误差,提出改进复制动力学方程,加强模型对信息偏差的容忍度。在此基础上,建立改进演化博弈模型,证明了模型能够收敛至纳什均衡解的微小ε-邻域,给出了相应的稳定性分析,并设计了一种网络防御决策方法。理论分析和仿真结果表明,所提模型能够克服观测误差影响,给出偏差数量级在0.01%的最优防御纯策略,且在强干扰环境下,防御决策的响应速度相较于其他3种经典决策模型最高可以提升64.06%。改进模型和防御决策方法能够有效提升防御决策的响应时效性和对观测误差的适应性。For the problem that the existing network defense decision-making method is challenging by error interference and real-time response,a novel network defense decision-making method based on an Improved Evolutionary Game Model(IEGM)is proposed.Firstly,using the classical servo system model for reference,the short-term prediction effect of the defense side on the attack strategy is quantified by differential hypothesis to accelerate the convergence of the model and improve the efficiency of defense decisions.Secondly,the mechanism of error generation in attack-defense game is analyzed,then the observational error in network defense is defined quantitatively,and the improved replication dynamics equation is proposed to strengthen the tolerance of the model to information deviation.On this basis,an improved evolutionary game model is established,and the corresponding stability analysis and mathematical proof are given to prove that the model can converge to the-neighborhood of the Nash equilibrium solution.Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed model can overcome the influence of observation error,and the optimal pure defense strategy with deviation order of 0.01%is given.Besides,under the jamming environment,the response speed of defense decision-making can be improved by 64.06%compared with the other three decision models.The improved model and decision-making method can effectively improve the response timeliness of defense decisions and the adaptability to observation error.

关 键 词：网络防御 决策方法 误差容忍 短期预测 改进复制动态 

分 类 号：TN915.08[电子电信—通信与信息系统] TP399[电子电信—信息与通信工程]