降低长三角地区O_(3)暴露风险的前体物减排路径优化研究  

Optimization of Precursors Mitigation Paths to Reduce the Risk from O_(3)Exposure in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：王逸豪 张宇 雷宇[2] WANG Yihao;ZHANG Yu;LEI Yu(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Center of Air Modeling and Systems Analysis,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China;Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]生态环境部环境规划院空气质量模拟与系统分析中心,北京100012 [3]郑州大学,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2023年第6期1072-1082,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.72171157)。

摘　　要：O_(3)污染的防治需要在分析O_(3)人群暴露风险特征的基础上,对前体物的减排路径进行优化.长三角地区是我国O_(3)浓度高、暴露风险大、前体物排放集中的地区之一,其减排路径的优化分析对于全国而言具有借鉴意义.本文以GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》中O_(3)浓度二级标准限值(160μg/m^(3))为目标,基于长三角地区的人群暴露风险探讨了不同减排路径下的O_(3)污染控制效果.首先,运用WRF-CAMx模型,依据不同的NOx和VOCs减排率模拟了121种减排情景作为基础数据集,引入响应曲面模型(RSM)来划分长三角地区不同城市的控制区类型,并结合人口暴露风险指数来评价O_(3)暴露的风险程度,将中高暴露风险地区与控制区耦合,设置HN区(NOx控制区中的O_(3)暴露中高风险城市)和HV区(VOCs控制区中的O_(3)暴露中高风险城市);其次,设置了7条不同的NOx/VOCs(二者排放量之比,下同)减排路径,分析了不同路径的控制效率,给出了不同地区的最佳减排策略.结果表明:①长三角地区中部城市主要是VOCs控制区,南部和北部城市以NOx控制为主;O_(3)中高暴露风险的城市数约占城市总数的41%,主要集中在长三角中部和北部地区.②考虑总体控制效率,NOx单向减排和VOCs单向减排分别是HN区和HV区控制效率最高的路径;考虑单位步长的控制效率,随着NOx减排量的增加,城市网格中O_(3)形成机制从VOCs控制逐渐过渡为NOx控制.③为保证VOCs控制型网格的平稳过渡及控制效率,HV区的最佳NOx/VOCs设置为1/3~1/2;考虑到“NOx不利”影响及控制效率,HN区的最佳NOx/VOCs设置为1~2.研究显示,长三角地区HV区的短期O_(3)防治应以控制VOCs为主,而长期O_(3)防治则要更聚焦控制NOx;HN区的O_(3)防治需要更加侧重控制NOx.Controlling ozone(O_(3))pollution requires optimizing precursor emission reduction pathways based on an analysis of the characteristics of public exposure to ambient O_(3).The Yangtze River Delta is one of the regions with high O_(3)concentration,large exposure,and concentrated precursor emissions in China.Analyzing its emission reduction pathway optimization has reference significance for the 3 whole country.Targeting O_(3)concentration of 160μg/m in the national air quality standard,this study explored the effect of O_(3)pollution control under different reduction paths based on the population exposure risk in the Yangtze River Delta Region.The WRF-CAMx model was used to simulate the ozone concentration under 121 scenarios of different NOx and VOCs reduction ratios,and the response surface model(RSM)was introduced to distinguish the sensitivity of O_(3)to NOx and VOCs in different cities of the Yangtze River Delta,and the population exposure risk index was combined to evaluate the risk level of O_(3)exposure,coupling the medium and high exposure risk areas with the control area(HN:O_(3)exposure in NOx control areas in high and medium risk cities;HV:O_(3)exposure in VOCs control areas in high and medium risk cities).Based on the modeling results,seven NOx/VOCs mitigation pathways were designed in this study,and the ozone control efficiency of different pathways was analyzed to formulate the best emission reduction strategies.The results show that:(1)The cities in the central part of the Yangtze River Delta are main VOCs-sensitive zones,and the cities in the south and north are main NOx-sensitive areas;the cities with high O_(3)exposure risk account for about 41%of the total number of cities,mainly concentrated in the central and northern regions of the Yangtze River Delta.(2)The paths with the highest control efficiency are NOx-only emission reduction and VOCs-only emission reduction in the HN and HV zones,respectively.Some grids change from VOCs-sensitive to NOx-sensitive as NOx emission reduces in the whole r

关 键 词：长三角地区 O_(3)暴露风险 控制区划分 NOx VOCS 路径优化 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]