中国竹林碳汇量测算及其潜力预测  

Calculation of Carbon Sink of Bamboo Forest in China and Its Potential Prediction

作　　者：傅乐乐 苏建兰 FU Le-le;SU Jian-lan(College of Economics and Management,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China)

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学经济管理学院,昆明650224

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2023年第3期96-102,共7页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究项目(SYSX2022012)。

摘　　要：基于全国森林资源清查报告统计数据,采用平均生物量法核算竹林固碳量及其动态变化情况,运用灰色预测模型预测未来五个统计期竹林碳汇潜力。结果显示,我国竹林固碳量从第四次清查期间的11173.05万t升至第九次清查期间18925.73万t,净增7752.68万t,增长率达69.39%;从不同行政区域看,竹林固碳量差异明显,其中以华东地区最大;从不同省份看,福建、江西、浙江、湖南四省的竹林固碳量较多;全国竹林碳汇潜力较大,截至2030年,全国竹林碳汇潜力达31041.01万t,将实现1.59%的碳减排贡献。基于上述研究结果,提出了挖掘竹林碳汇潜力的对策建议。Based on the national forest inventory report,this study used the average biomass method to calculate the carbon sequestration value of bamboo forests and its dynamic changes,and used the gray prediction model to predict the carbon sink potential of bamboo forests in the next five statistical periods.The results showed that the amount of carbon sequestered in bamboo forests in China rose from 111730500 tons in the fourth inventory to 189257300 tons in the ninth inventory,with a net increase of 77526800 tons and a growth rate of 69.39%.Besides,it also showed that the amount of carbon sequestered in bamboo forests varied significantly from different administrative regions with the largest amount in East China,and the amount of carbon sequestered in bamboo forests was higher in Fujian,Jiangxi,Zhejiang and Hunan provinces from different provinces.Thirdly,it showed that the national bamboo forest carbon sink potential was large,and the national bamboo forest carbon sink potential would reach 310410100 tons by 2030,which would achieve 1.59%of carbon emission reduction contribution.Based on the above research results,it proposed countermeasures for tapping the carbon sink potential of bamboo forests to achieve the maximum effectiveness of the value of bamboo forest carbon sinks and help China achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutral strategic goals as scheduled.

关 键 词：竹林 碳汇量 平均生物量法 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F326.27[经济管理—产业经济]