农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产的影响——基于全国9560个农户的调查数据  

Impact of Aging of Agricultural Labor Force on Grain Production:Based on A Survey Data of 9560 Farmers in China

作　　者：祝伟 ZHU Wei(School of Economics and Management,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213032,China)

机构地区：[1]常州工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常州213032

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期53-60,共8页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国康养产业高质量发展的统计测度与政策优化研究”(22BTJ068);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目“江苏县域经济高质量发展的统计测度与时空特征研究”(2022SJYB1354)。

摘　　要：基于2017年全国9560个农户的调查数据,实证分析农业劳动力老龄化对粮食种植比率、粮食单产、粮食种植规模、土地流转和农资投入的影响。结果表明:农业劳动力老龄化在初期对粮食种植比率有负向影响,而在后期无显著影响;农业劳动力老龄化在初期对粮食单产没有显著影响,但随着老龄化程度的加深开始显现对粮食单产的不利影响;农业劳动力老龄化对粮食种植规模有负向影响,且影响程度随着老龄化程度的加深而增大;农业劳动力老龄化对土地转出有正向影响,对土地转入有负向影响;农业劳动力老龄化对农资投入有负向影响,且影响程度随着老龄化程度的加深而增大。通过完善粮食生产支持政策、促进农户与现代农业有机衔接、完善农村养老和社会保障体系、促进土地流转和加强农业技术服务,可以缓解农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产的不利影响。Based on the survey data of 9560 farmers in China in 2017,this paper explored the impact of the aging of agricultural labor force(AALF)on the proportion of grain planting,grain yield,land scale,land transfer and agricultural inputs.The results showed that,The AALF had a negative impact on the proportion of grain planting in the early stage,but had no significant impact in the late stage.The AALF had no significant impact on grain yield at the initial stage,but with the deepening of aging,it begined to show a negative impact on grain yield.The AALF had a negative impact on the scale of grain planting,and the effect increased with the deepening of aging.The AALF had a positive impact on land transfer out and a negative impact on land transfer in.The AALF had a negative impact on agricultural inputs,and the effect increased with the deepening of aging.The government can mitigate the adverse impact of the AALF on grain production by improving the grain production support policy,promoting the connection between farmers and modern agriculture,improving the rural pension and social security system,promoting land transfer and strengthening agricultural technical services.

关 键 词：老龄化 粮食产量 种植规模 土地流转 要素投入 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]