地产调控政策、投资与中国经济波动  

Real Estate Credit Policies,Investment,and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China

作　　者：葛璐澜 李志远[2] 柳永明[3] 冯玲[3] Ge Lulan;Li Zhiyuan;Liu Yongming;Feng Ling(Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting&Finance,Shanghai,201209,China;Fudan University,Shanghai,200433,China;Shanghai University of Finance&Economics,Shanghai,200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院,201209 [2]复旦大学经济学院,200433 [3]上海财经大学金融学院,200433

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第2期3-23,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家教育部人文社会科学研究基金一般项目(19YJA790011);上海财经大学创新团队支持计划(IRTSHUFE);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173078、72273035)的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过对中国2003—2021年的月度数据进行向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析表明,地产调控政策针对的主体不同,其所造成的地产业和制造业的投资联动方式也不同。为理解地产企业信贷紧缩、住房需求信贷紧缩、土地供给增加三类地产调控政策对不同行业投资决策机制的影响,以及跨部门投资联动如何影响宏观经济波动,本文构建了一个包含制造企业和地产企业的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,并引入公司债,从资本结构视角探究地产政策对企业融资和投资决策的影响。模型能够捕捉数据中投资跨部门联动的事实,其结果表明了在三类地产调控政策中针对地产企业的信贷冲击是经济周期波动的主要源头之一。This paper applies a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM)analysis to Chinese monthly data for the period of 2003 to 2021,and finds that real estate credit policies targeting different sectors cause different co-movement of the investments of the real estate and manufacturing sectors.To understand the mechanism through which the real estate policy affects the investment decisions of different sectors,and the way in which the investment comovement affects macroeconomic fluctuations,this paper constructs a twosector(manufacturing sector and real estate sector)dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model,featuring corporate bond issuance to study how real estate policies affect firm production and financing decisions.The model is able to capture the stylized facts of investment co-movement under different real estate policies in data.The numerical simulation demonstrates that,the credit policy tightening the financial constraint of real estate firms will drive down the capital investments in both sectors,amplifying the depression of the macroeconomy,and stimulate housing price in short run but depress the rising magnitude of the housing price in the long run.Comparing with the real estate credit policies targeting household and land supply,policy targeting real estate firms is the major source of macroeconomic fluctuations.

关 键 词：地产调控政策 投资 经济波动 DSGE 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F832.5F124.8