长江流域的气温和降水趋势对城乡景观发展的影响  

The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Trends on Urban-rural Landscape Development in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：邢甜甜 Attilio Castellarin Xing Tiantian;Attilio Castellarin

机构地区：[1]意大利博洛尼亚大学 [2]意大利博洛尼亚大学土木、化学、环境和材料工程学院

出　　处：《中外建筑》2023年第5期25-32,共8页Chinese & Overseas Architecture

摘　　要：基于气象数据,采用Theil-Sen方法和改良的Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检测法,对1952—2012年长江流域地区气温和降水的时空变化特征进行分析。改良后的方法将数据中所有显著的自相关结构纳入考虑范围,以此来消除水文时间序列的自相关影响。结果表明:长江流域整体增温趋势明显,年降水量减少趋势并不明显,而气温与降水的变化趋势均表现出显著的季节性和地域性特征。这一现象可以归因于长江流域广阔的地域、复杂的地形和天气条件相互作用,共同影响着气温和降水的变化模式。此外,地表植被和地表水资源对气温和降水的变化也有相应的响应特征,具体的响应模式值得进一步的阶段性和相关性分析。In the present study,the Theil-Sen and the modified non-parametric tests of Mann-Kendall were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin from 1952 to 2012.The modified tests consider all significant autocorrelation structures in the data to eliminate the autocorrelation effect of hydrological time series.The results indicate that there was an overall warming trend in the study area,and the decreasing trend of annual rainfall was not significant.Both monthly mean temperature and precipitation data presented significant seasonal and regional characteristics.The phenomenon can be attributed to the vast territory of the Yangtze River Basin,where the complex interplay between topography and atmospheric conditions affects the patterns of temperature and precipitation variability.Furthermore,both vegetation coverage and surface water resources exhibit responses to the changes in temperature and precipitation,and the specific patterns of variability in these responses warrant further phase and correlation analysis.

关 键 词：长江流域 Modified Mann-Kendall趋势检测法 温度变化趋势 降水变化趋势 城乡景观 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]