全球价值链分工的内需主导化与产出波动  

Domestic Demand Dominance of GVC and Output Volatility

作　　者：文武[1] 张海洋 詹淼华 Wen Wu;Zhang Hai-yang;Zhan Miao-hua

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2023年第5期33-45,共13页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链嵌入下‘稳增长’的实现机制及策略研究”(18CJL011)。

摘　　要：基于附加值贸易的引致原因识别全球价值链(GVC)分工内需主导化水平,利用2000—2021年42国行业维度的面板数据研究其对产出波动的影响与机制。结果表明:第一,我国GVC分工有明显内需主导化趋势,该趋势在我国与发达国家间GVC分工以及技术和资本密集型行业GVC分工中更为突出;第二,GVC分工内需主导化可显著抑制产出波动,这一作用发挥的渠道在于减少国外贸易保护、增强国内需求动力与提升生产效率;第三,在深度融入价值链时,上述产出波动抑制作用尤为明显,中国在全面扩大开放的背景下可借助GVC分工内需主导化而稳定经济;第四,推动与发达国家间GVC分工实现内需主导化能更有效地减少产出波动,同时,与劳动密集型行业相比,技术和资本密集型行业GVC分工内需主导化的产出波动抑制作用更强。因此,以双循环新发展格局构建为契机加速GVC分工内需主导化进程,是提高经济稳定性的重要抓手。Based on the causes of value-added trade,this paper identifies domestic demand dominance level of Global Value Chain(GVC)division of labor,and use the panel data of 42 countries from the period of 2000 to 2021 at industry dimension to study its impact and mechanism on output fluctuations.The results show that:first,China's GVC division of labor has obvious trend of domestic demand dominance,which is more prominent in the GVC division of labor between China and developed countries and the GVC division of labor in capital and technology-intensive industries.Second,domestic demand dominance of GVC can significantly inhibit output volatility.The channel to play this role is to reduce foreign protection on international trade,strengthen domestic demand and improve productivity.Third,when it is deeply integrated into GVC,the above output volatility inhibition effect is particularly obvious.China can stabilize its economy with the help of domestic demand dominance of GVC in the context of expanding opening up on all fronts.Fourth,promoting GVC division of labor with developed countries to achieve domestic demand dominance can more effectively reduce output volatility.Meanwhile,compared with labor-intensive industries,domestic demand dominance of GVC in technology and capital-intensive industries has stronger inhibitory effect on output volatility.Therefore,taking the construction of“dual circulation”development paradigm as an opportunity to accelerate the process of domestic demand dominance of GVC is an important way to improve economic stability.

关 键 词：内需主导化 GVC分工 产出波动 附加值 贸易保护 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]