基于模糊评价视角的“双碳”目标建设下城市低碳交通成效研究  

Study on Effectiveness of Urban Low-carbon Transport under Construction of“Dual-carbon”Goals Based on Perspective of Fuzzy Evaluation

作　　者：张路路 佟琼[1] 郭雅楠 张玉瑾 ZHANG Lu-lu;TONG Qiong;GUO Ya-nan;ZHANG Yu-jin(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Economics and Management,Hengshui University,Hengshui Hebei 053000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]衡水学院经济管理学院,河北衡水053000

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2023年第4期256-263,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：北京市社科基金项目(18JDYJB003);河北省湿地保护与绿色发展协同创新中心课题项目(2022XJZX22)。

摘　　要：交通运输业是能源消耗及碳排放的集中行业,发展低碳交通成为建立低碳社会的新型产业形态。以“双碳”目标建设为背景,构建了以交通基础能效与发展运营为1级指标层的模糊综合评价体系,以探讨城市低碳交通建设成效。首先,运用目标函数法构建并筛选了指标体系,再结合AHP-CV组合法获取了各指标组合权重。其次,依据低碳交通建设的功能目标,细分并确立了隶属基础和发展的5个2级指标,包括基础设施管理、交通运输工具、交通体系建设、交通环保政策、低碳交通环境。而后,选取东北区碳化典型城市哈尔滨市为实证对象,动态评价了2017—2020年间该市低碳交通发展水平。结果表明:低碳推行的所选年间,低碳交通发展呈弱上升趋势,综合隶属度最终呈现为“中、良”,评价结果与哈尔滨近3 a低碳交通实际部署相一致,反映前期主体选择的合理性;2020年的疫情冲击及“双碳”目标响应的正向带动对低碳指标影响明显;依据分级指标结果,基础交通更替、扩容后低碳效果明显,但信息化交通效果未能体现,仍需继续发力,公民低碳意识仍需加强,建议低碳发展应着重于继续推进低碳交通工具的应用、增强市民低碳意识及合理化低碳交通体系建设;模型分析结果与现状相符,可为“双碳”背景下的交通低碳化区域建设提供借鉴。The Transport industry is a concentrated industry of energy consumption and carbon emission.The development of low-carbon transport becomes a new industrial form of establishing a low-carbon society.On the background of construction of"dual carbon"goals,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system with the first-level indicator layer of transport infrastructure energy efficiency,development and operation is constructed to explore the effect of construction of urban low-carbon transport.First,the indicator system is constructed and screened by using the objective function method,and the combination weight of each indicator is obtained by combining AHP-CV combination method.Second,according to the functional objectives of low-carbon transport construction,5 secondary indicators which are subordinate to infrastructure and development,including infrastructure management,means of transport,transport system construction,transport environmental protection policies and low-carbon transport environment,are subdivided and established.Afterwards,selecting Harbin,a typical carbonated city in Northeast China to be the empirical object,the development level of low-carbon transport in the city from 2017 to 2020 is dynamically evaluated.The result shows that(1)In the selected years of low-carbon implementation,the development of low-carbon transport shows a weak upward trend.The comprehensive subordinate degree is"medium,good"at last,which is consistent with the actual deployment of low-carbon transport in Harbin in the past 3 years,and reflects the rationality of the early subject selection.(2)The influence of the impact of 2020 epidemic situation and the positive drive of the effect of"dual-carbon"goals on low-carbon indicators is significant.(3)According to the result of indicator grading,although the low-carbon effect is obvious after the replacement and expansion of basic transport,the effect of information transport is not reflected,which needs to keep effort,and citizens'low-carbon awareness still needs to be strengthened.It i

关 键 词：绿色交通 低碳发展 模糊综合评价 城市低碳交通 “双碳”目标 

分 类 号：F572.88[经济管理—产业经济]