塔吉克斯坦M_(S)7.2级地震滑坡危险性快速评估及其对中国西部边疆山区巨灾风险防控的启示  

Rapid assessment of landslide susceptibility induced by M_(S)7.2 earthquake in Tajikistan and its enlightenment on disaster risk prevention and control in western frontier mountainous region of China

作　　者：张永双 杜国梁 姚鑫[4] 任三绍 李金秋 Zhang Yongshuang;Du Guoliang;Yao Xin;Ren Sanshao;Li Jinqiu(School of Engineering and Technology,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Engineering and Technology Innovation Center for Geosafety Risk Prevention and Control of Major Projects,MNR,Beijing 100083,China;Hebei University of Geosciences,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050031,China;Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,北京100083 [2]自然资源部重大工程地质安全风险防控工程技术创新中心,北京100083 [3]河北地质大学,河北石家庄050031 [4]中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《地质学报》2023年第5期1371-1382,共12页Acta Geologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号41941017)资助的成果。

摘　　要：2023年2月23日,在中国新疆边境附近的塔吉克斯坦东南部山区发生M_(S)7.2级地震,震源深度10km。按照以往经验研判,地震可能造成山体震损甚至形成较大范围的滑坡灾害(链)。为了快速预估本次地震滑坡灾害情况,本文采用InSAR地表变形观测、遥感解译和模型分析计算等方法,开展了同震滑坡灾害危险性快速评估,揭示了地震滑坡发育分布规律。结果表明:①InSAR地表变形监测显示了本次地震的发震断裂以右旋走滑为主,断裂南侧变形明显,为地震驱动的主动盘;②同震滑坡的极高和高危险区沿地震断裂呈带状展布,主要分布于雪山的角峰、刃脊两侧的高陡部位以及沟谷的陡峻岸坡;③震中附近遥感解译发现,极高和高危险区主要以中小型高位冰岩崩滑为主,具有“点多、面广”的特征。基于以上结果并结合喜马拉雅西构造结地区的地震地质背景,分析了地震地质灾害对中国西部边疆山区的潜在风险,并提出了针对性的巨灾风险防控建议,可为地质活跃区重大工程规划建设地质安全和山区城镇地质灾害防灾减灾提供科学参考。On February 23,2023,a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck southeastern Tajikistan,close to the border of Xinjiang,China,with a focal depth of 10 km.In general,earthquakes could cause great damages to mountain slopes and even trigger numerous co-seismic landslides.By adopting methods such as InSAR surface deformation monitoring,remote sensing interpretation,and analytical calculation,a rapid risk assessment of co-seismic landslide hazards was conducted,and the development and distribution characteristics of co-seismic landslides was obtained.The results show that:①InSAR surface deformation monitoring indicated that the seismogenic fault was characterized by right-lateral strike-slip movement.②More significant deformation was observed on the southern side of the fault,suggesting that it is the active disk of the fault.The highly risk areas for co-seismic landslides were distributed along the fault zone,and primarily in high and steep areas on the sides of the snow mountain and edge ridges,as well as the steep slopes of the valley.③Through remote sensing interpretation near the epicenter,it is found that co-seismic geological disasters were mainly comprised of small and medium-scale high-locality glacier-rock avalanches,with characteristics of being scattered and widespread.On this basis,combined with the seismic geological background of the West Himalayan syntaxis,the potential risks of seismic geological disasters to China's border region were assessed,and suggestions for preventing seismic geological disasters in the western border and mountainous areas of China were proposed,which can provide scientific reference for ensuring geological safety of major projects in geologically active areas and for disaster prevention and reduction of geological disasters in mountainous towns.

关 键 词：喜马拉雅西构造结 同震滑坡 地质安全 Newmark模型 灾害风险防控 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] P315.9[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]