2014-2021年北京市通州区大气污染物PM_(2.5)对人群每日死亡人数的影响  

Influence of air pollutant PM_(2.5) on daily death toll in Tongzhou district,Beijing city from 2014 to 2021

作　　者：苏彦萍[1] 张国峰 吴芹[1] 孙晓伟[1] SU Yanping;ZHANG Guofeng;WU Qin;SUN Xiaowei(Big Data Office,Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 10l100,China;Administrating Office,Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]北京市通州区疾病预防控制中心大数据办公室,北京101100 [2]北京市通州区疾病预防控制中心办公室

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2023年第4期286-292,共7页Preventive Medicine Tribune

摘　　要：目的 分析北京市通州区大气污染物PM_(2.5)对人群每日死亡人数的影响,为开展防控工作提供依据。方法收集2014年1月1日-2021年12月31日北京市通州区大气污染物包括细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))、二氧化硫(SO_(2))、二氧化氮(NO_(2))、一氧化碳(CO_(2))和臭氧(O_(3-8h))的数据。气象数据指标包括每日平均温度、相对湿度和气压。应用时间序列的广义相加模型(GAM),即单污染物模型及多污染物模型定量分析大气PM_(2.5)对人群每日死亡例数的影响。采用人群超额死亡危险度(ER)及其95%可信区间(95%CI)分析大气PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),人群每日死亡人数增加的百分比。结果2014年1月1日-2021年12月31日北京市通州区大气污染物PM_(2.5)平均浓度值为40μg/m^(3),2021年PM_(2.5)浓度值较2014年下降66%。同期北京市通州区居民平均每日死亡人数14例。GAM单污染物模型显示,PM_(2.5)对全人群每日死亡人数单日滞后7d的死亡影响效应最大,ER值为0.31%(95%CI:-0.14%~0.77%),其中男性ER值为0.14%(95%CI:-0.36%~0.63%),女性ER值为0.53%(95%CI:0.03%~1.02%);年龄<65岁组人群ER值为0.43%(95%CI:-0.14%~1.00%),年龄≥65岁组人群ER值为0.28%(95%CI:-0.20%~0.76%)。多污染物模型显示,PM_(2.5)对全人群每日死亡人数单日滞后1d的死亡影响效应最大,ER值为0.39%(95%CI:-0.16%~0.94%),其中男性滞后1dER值为0.34%(95%CI:-0.25%~0.94%),女性滞后7dER值为0.49%(95%CI:-0.00%~0.99%);年龄<65岁组人群滞后2dER值为0.58%(95%CI:0.00%~1.16%),年龄≥65岁组人群滞后1 dER值为0.45%(95%CI:-0.12%~1.03%)。结论2014-2021年北京市通州区大气污染物PM_(2.5)浓度与人群每日死亡人数有相关性,其中女性和<65岁人群死亡风险较高,并存在一定的滞后性。Objective To analyze the influence of air pollutant PM_(2.5)on the daily death toll in Tongzhou district of Beijing city,so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control.N MethodsThe Air pollutants including fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)),inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10)),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2)),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),carbon monoxide(CO)and ozone(O_(3-8H))in Tongzhou district of Beijing city from January 1,2014 to December 31,2021 were collected,and meteorological data indicators include daily average temperature,relative humidity and air pressure.A time-series generalized additive model(GAM)was used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of independent and mixed effects of PM_(2.5)on daily mortality,and population excess mortality risk(ER)and 95%confidence intervals(95%CI)were used to analyze the percentage increase in daily mortality per 10μg/m^(3)increase in PM_(2.5)concentration.Results From January 1,2014 to December 31,2021,the average concentration of PM_(2.5)in Tongzhou district of Beijing city was 40μg/m^(3),and the concentration of PM_(2.5)in 2021 was 66%lower than that in 2014.In Tongzhou district,an average of 14 residents died every day during the same period.The GAM single pollutant model showed that PM_(2.5)had the largest impact on the daily mor-tality of the whole population with a lag of 7 days,and the ER value was 0.31%(95%CI:95%CI:-0.14%-0.77%).The ER value of male was 0.14%(95%CI:-0.36%-0.63%)and female was 0.53%(95%CI:0.03%-1.02%).The ER value was 0.43%(95%CI:-0.14%-1.00%)in the age group<65 years old and 0.28%(95%CI:-0.20%-0.76%)in the age group≥65 years old.The multi-pollutant model showed that PM_(2.5)had the largest impact on the daily death toll of the whole population with a lag of 1 day,and the ER value was 0.39%(95%CI:-0.16%-0.94%).The ER value was 0.34%(95%CI:-0.25%-0.94%)for male and 0.49%(95%CI:-0.00%-0.99%)for female.The 2-day lag ER value was 0.58%(95%CI:0.00%-1.16%)in the group<65 years old,and the 1 day lag ER value was 0.45%(95%CI:-0.12%-1.03%)in the group

关 键 词：大气污染物 细颗粒物 死亡人数 超额死亡率 时间序列 广义相加模型 北京市 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学]