气候变暖对海州湾春季短蛸空间分布的潜在影响  

Potential Effects of Climate Warming on Spatial Distribution of Octopus ocellatus Inhabiting Haizhou Bay in Spring

作　　者：崔晏华 刘淑德 徐宾铎[1,2] 纪毓鹏 张崇良[1,2] 任一平 薛莹[1,2] Cui Yanhua;Liu Shude;Xu Binduo;Ji Yupeng;Zhang Chongliang;Ren Yiping;Xue Ying(College of Fisheries,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China;Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem,Ministry of Education,Qingdao 266003,China;Shandong Fishery Development and Resource Conservation Station,Yantai 264003,China;Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao),Qingdao 266237,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003 [2]海州湾渔业生态系统教育部野外科学观测研究站,山东青岛266003 [3]山东省渔业发展和资源养护总站,山东烟台264003 [4]青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋渔业科学与食物产出过程功能实验室,山东青岛266237

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第7期42-48,共7页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(2019YFD0901204,2019YFD0901205)资助。

摘　　要：为了解气候变暖对海州湾短蛸(Octopus ocellatus)空间分布的潜在影响,本研究基于2011年和2013—2019年春季海州湾短蛸的渔业资源和栖息环境调查数据,采用随机森林(RF)模型构建了海州湾春季短蛸的空间分布模型,并根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告中的数据,分析和预测了在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种气候变暖情景下海州湾春季短蛸资源分布区、分布重心及相对资源量的变化。研究显示,模型预测值与观测值之间的线性回归方程的斜率为0.86,截距为0.25,模型预测性能较好;模型分析表明,对短蛸空间分布影响最显著的环境因子是底层水温,其次是底层盐度、水深,影响最小的是离岸距离;在未来气候变暖的情景下,海州湾春季短蛸资源分布的高值区将进一步扩大,空间分布重心将向海州湾北部和东部迁移,相对资源量呈增长趋势。In order to understand the potential effects of climate warming on the spatial distribution of Octopus ocellatus inhabiting Haizhou Bay,in this study,we used random forest model to construct the spatial distribution model of O.ocellatus in spring based on the survey data collected in 2011 and from 2013 to 2019.According to the data in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the changes of resource distribution area,center of gravity and relative resource of O.ocellatus under three climate warming scenarios,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,were analyzed and predicted.The results showed that the slope obtained by linear regression between the predicted value and observed value of the model was 0.86 and the intercept was 0.25;The model analysis showed that the sea bottom temperature was the most significant environmental factor affecting the spatial distribution of O.ocellatus,which was followed by sea bottom salinity and sea water depth,and the offshore distance had the least influence.Under the future climate warming scenarios,the high value area of relative resource distribution of O.ocellatus will be further expanded.The center of gravity of spatial distribution will move to the north and east areas of Haizhou Bay,and the relative resource will show an increasing trend.

关 键 词：气候变暖 短蛸 海州湾 空间分布 随机森林模型 

分 类 号：S931.1[农业科学—渔业资源]