基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法  

Solar Full-disk Flare Forecasting Model Based on 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux

作　　者：雷蕾 崔延美 钟秋珍 师立勤 LEI Lei;CUI Yanmei;ZHONG Qiuzhen;SHI Liqin(National Space Science Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家空间科学中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2023年第2期212-218,共7页Chinese Journal of Space Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(420722424);中国科学院重点研究项目(ZDRE-KT-2021-3);中国科学院国家空间科学中心攀登计划共同资助。

摘　　要：太阳耀斑是一种重要的太阳爆发活动现象,表现为近乎全波段的电磁辐射增强。统计表明,太阳活动水平越高,太阳爆发越频繁,耀斑爆发的概率越大。利用1975-2007年10.7 cm流量与耀斑爆发的统计关系,建立了一种可行的全日面爆发耀斑概率的预报方法,能够实现C,M,X三种级别的耀斑在全日面爆发的概率预报。通过2008-2016年的观测数据,对模型进行了预报性能的评估,得到模型对C,M,X级耀斑发生概率的预报误差均较小,Brier评分误差分别为0.113,0.087,0.012;模型的预报性能均比平均模型有提高,对C,M,X级耀斑发生概率预报的Brier技巧评分分别为0.250,0.106,0.012。在2008-2016年未来1天耀斑预报的模型实测中,模型的预报效果与中国科学院空间环境预报中心的预报效果相当,这说明该模型在实际的空间环境预报中切实可行。Solar flare is an important solar active phenomenon,which is manifested as electromagnetic radiant enhancement in almost all wave bands.The statistics indicate that the solar flare is positively associated with the solar active levels.In this paper,a method for predicting the probability of solar flare is established based on the statistical relationship between 10.7 cm flux and solar flare during 1975 to 2007.The forecasting model can be used to predict the probability of C,M and X class flares.During 2008 to 2016,the predicted errors of the model for C,M and X class flares are 0.113,0.087 and 0.012,respectively,and the predicted skill scores are 0.250,0.106 and 0.012,respectively.It means that our method has less predicted errors and more skill scores than the average model for predicting C,M and X class flares.During the period from 2008 to 2016,the predicted results of the model are similar to that of Space Environment Prediction Center in National Space Science Center.It indicates that the model is feasible in the actual space environment prediction.

关 键 词：10.7 cm流量 全日面耀斑预报 概率预报 

分 类 号：P353[天文地球—空间物理学]