顾及ENSO的UT1-UTC预报干预模型  

UT1-UTC prediction intervention model considering El Nino-southern oscillation phenomena

作　　者：赵一沣 聂文锋 徐天河[1] 许艳[1] ZHAO Yifeng;NIE Wenfeng;XU Tianhe;XU Yan(Institute of Space Sciences,Shandong University,Weihai,Shandong 264209,China;Xi’an Research Institute of Surveying and Mapping,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学空间科学研究院,山东威海264209 [2]西安测绘研究所,西安710054

出　　处：《导航定位学报》2023年第3期125-131,共7页Journal of Navigation and Positioning

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFB0505800,2020YFB0505804);国家自然科学基金项目(41874032,42004012);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2020MD045;ZR2020QD046);山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2020QD048);大地测量与地球动力学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(SKLGED2021-3-4);山东大学(威海)青年学者未来计划项目(20820211007)。

摘　　要：为了进一步提高地球自转参数(ERP)的预报精度,提出一种顾及ENSO的UT1-UTC预报干预模型:分析厄尔尼诺(El Niño)和拉尼娜(La Niña)现象对世界时与协调世界时之差(UT1-UTC)的短期影响;给出干预模型类别,以及干预模型作用时机的确定方法,并构建ERP预报干预模型。结果表明,采用干预事件的影响逐渐开始,并短暂影响的干预模型类别,基于拟合误差作为干预基础序列,结合提出的干预模型作用时机标准,提出的干预模型能够显著改善UT1-UTC的短期预报精度,预报跨度180 d的提升幅度在3 ms左右。In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of Earth rotation parameters(ERP),the paper proposed a UT1-UTC prediction intervention model considering El Nino-southern oscillation phenomena:the short-term impact of El Nino and La Nina phenomena on the universal time 1-universal time coordinated(UT1-UTC)was analyzed;and the classification of the intervention model and the determination of the action time of the intervention model were given;then the ERP prediction intervention model was constructed.Result showed that based on the fitting error as the basic sequence of intervention,in combination with the proposed timing criterion of the intervention model,the proposed intervention model could significantly improve the accuracy of UT1-UTC short-term forecast by the classification of the the intervention model in which the influence of intervention events would gradually start and temporarily affect,with an improvement of about 3 ms on the forecast span of 180 d.

关 键 词：地球自转参数预报 干预模型 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 最小二乘外推和自回归模型 世界时与协调世界时之差(UT1-UTC) 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]