基于EMD-ELM模型的九寨沟景区游客量预测研究  

Research on the Prediction of Tourist Volume in Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area Based on EMD-ELM Model

作　　者：伍银艳 李小红 Wu Yinyan;Li Xiaohong(Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《中阿科技论坛（中英文）》2023年第6期76-80,共5页China-Arab States Science and Technology Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(11971273,1171008)。

摘　　要：大数据时代,网络搜索数据已经成为预测游客量的新数据来源。本文以九寨沟景区游客量为研究对象,从众多网络搜索关键词中挑选出合适的关键词,在对旅游搜索指标进行EMD去噪处理的基础上,构建了ELM游客量预测模型。研究结果表明:网络搜索数据与九寨沟景区游客量数据之间存在较高的关联性;EMD-ELM游客量预测模型能准确预测九寨沟景区的游客量变化趋势。对景区游客量变化趋势进行准确预测,能够为景区管理者提供决策依据,完善旅游安全预警体系,让游客获得更好的旅游体验感,同时便于周边产业制定相应的营销策略。In the era of big data,web search data has become an emerging data source for predicting tourist volume.Taking Jiuzhaigou scenic area as an example,this thesis selects suitable keywords from multiple web search keywords,and constructs an ELM tourist volume prediction model based on EMD denoising of tourism search indexes.The research results indicate that there is a high correlation between web search data and tourist volume.In addition,the EMD-ELM model can accurately predict the changing trend of tourist volume,which can provide a basis for decision making of relevant managers,improve the warning system of tourism safety and give tourists a better tourism experience,while facilitating the surrounding industries to develop corresponding marketing strategies.

关 键 词：游客量预测 网络搜索数据 EMD-ELM模型 九寨沟景区 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]