基于实测资料的畸形波概率及波浪要素分析  

Analysis of freak wave probability and wave characteristics based on measured data

作　　者：蔡丽 赵建春[1] 向容瑶 孙昭晨[2] 梁炳贤 CAI Li;ZHAO Jianchun;XIANG Rongyao;SUN Zhaochen;LIANG Bingxian(PowerChina Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited,Hangzhou 310014,China;State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310014 [2]大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《海洋工程》2023年第3期56-64,共9页The Ocean Engineering

摘　　要：根据Kjeldsen对畸形波的定义:波高大于有效波高的2倍(H/H_(1/3)>2),基于实测波浪资料,统计分析了江苏射阳海域和广东南澳海域的畸形波个数和波浪要素。江苏射阳海域畸形波发生概率为0.005 7%,广东南澳海域畸形波发生概率为0.007%。用Rayleigh分布、双参数Weibull分布和MER分布对实测数据得到的特征波高进行了拟合,研究了海域内畸形波发生的概率分布。拟合结果表明:MER分布更适合描述两个海域畸形波的发生概率,两个海域畸形波的发生概率均高于Rayleigh分布和Weibull分布。在测量数据期间,台风在海域过境可能增加畸形波的发生概率;同时两个海域的双峰谱占比为22.7%和5.8%,可能也是导致畸形波发生概率增加的原因之一。According to Kjeldsen's definition of freak waves in which the wave height is larger than two times of significant wave height(H/H_(1/3)>2),and based on the measured wave data,the number of freak waves and wave characteristics in Sheyang sea area of Jiangsu Province and Nan'ao sea area of Guangdong Province are statistically analyzed.The occurrence probability of freak waves in Sheyang sea area of Jiangsu Province is 0.0057%,and that in Nan'ao sea area of Guangdong Province is 0.007%.Rayleigh distribution,twoparameter Weibull distribution and MER distribution are used to fit the wave height obtained from the measured data,and the probability distribution of freak waves in the sea area is studied.The fitting results show that MER distribution is more suitable for describing the occurrence probability of freak waves in the two sea areas,and the occurrence probability of freak waves in the two sea areas is higher than Rayleigh distribution and Weibull distribution.During the measurement data period,typhoon transit in the sea area may increase the probability of freak waves,and the bimodal spectrum of the two sea areas accounts for 22.7%and 5.8%,which may also be one of the reasons for the increase in the probability of freak waves.

关 键 词：畸形波 RAYLEIGH分布 双参数Weibull分布 MER分布 波高概率分布 波浪要素 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]