城市在职青年的生育时间选择及影响因素--基于983名青年的实证调查分析  

Fertility Time Choice and Influencing Factors of Urban Working Youth:Based on the Empirical Investigation and Analysis of 983 Urban Youth

作　　者：贾志科 罗志华 王思嘉 JIA Zhi-ke;LUO Zhi-hua;WANG Si-jia(College of Philosophy and Sociology,Hebei University,Baoding Hebei 071002,China;School of Social Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学哲学与社会学学院,河北保定071002 [2]华东师范大学社会发展学院,上海200241

出　　处：《西北人口》2023年第3期52-64,共13页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“家庭养育成本及其对生育决策的影响研究”(项目编号:21ARK006)。

摘　　要：持续的低生育水平与少子化已经成为我国人口发展的新常态。生育时间的期望与选择作为生育意愿与行为的重要内涵之一,对生育水平具有重要影响。文章利用2020年10~12月在河北保定针对5大类行业18~35岁的983名在职青年所进行的“青年发展状况”问卷调查数据,对青年的个体社会特征与生育时间选择进行交互分析,在此基础上对影响在职青年最佳生育年龄选择的因素进行回归分析。结果显示:城市在职青年具有较强的晚育意识,其生育时间期望呈现出“男高女低”的特征,理想与打算二孩的生育间隔选择也相对趋近,从事教育行业、出生于城市、年龄较大、文化程度较高和“双独夫妇”的在职青年更倾向于选择晚生。多元线性回归分析结果表明,行业、年龄、文化程度、夫妇类型、性别和工作收入满意度均会显著影响青年的最佳生育年龄选择,其中教育行业、24~29岁年龄组、大专文化水平、“双独夫妇”对在职青年的最佳生育年龄期望具有明显的正向提升效应,女性比男性青年的最佳生育年龄期望更高,在职青年的工作收入满意度越高,则其最佳生育年龄偏好越晚。此外,文章也就晚婚晚育或不婚不育行为产生的影响、影响青年生育时间期望与选择的多重因素以及生育年龄期望与生育行为实践之间的差距展开了深入讨论,以进一步推进对育龄群体生育时间选择规律的认识和理解。Continued low fertility levels and low fertility have become the new norm for China’s population development.As one of the important connotations of fertility intentions and behaviors,expectation and choice of fertility timing have an important impact on fertility levels.This study uses data from the“Youth Development Status”questionnaire survey conducted in Baoding,Hebei from October to December 2020 among 983 working youths aged 18~35 in five major industries to analysis the interaction between youths’individual social characteristics and their choice of childbearing time.The regression analysis of the factors influencing the choice of the optimal age of childbearing was carried out.The results show that:urban working youths have a strong awareness of late childbearing,and their expectation of the timing of childbirth is characterized by“high male and low female”,and their choice of the ideal and intended birth intervals for their second child is relatively similar.Working youths in the education sector,urban-born,older,more educated and“double-independent couples”are more likely to choose to have children later in life.The results of the multiple linear regression analysis show that industry,age,education level,couple type,gender and income satisfaction all significantly influence youths’choice of the optimal age of childbearing,with education industry,the 24~29 age group,tertiary education level and“double-independent couples”having a significant positive enhancing effect on the optimal age of childbearing expectations of working youths.The higher income satisfaction of working youths,the later their preference for the optimal age of childbearing.In addition,this study also discusses the impact of late marriage and fertility or non-marriage and infertility behavior,the multiple factors that influence youths’fertility expectations and choices,and the gap between fertility age expectations and fertility practices,in order to further promote knowledge and understanding of the patterns of

关 键 词：城市青年 生育时间 生育年龄 生育间隔 影响因素 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]