城投公司信托融资的风险扩散效应及其应对--基于担保圈的视角  

The Risk Diffusion Effect of Trust Financing of Urban Investment Corporation and Its Countermeasures:From the Perspective of Guarantee Circle

作　　者：刘金东 陶然 姜令臻 Jindong Liu;Ran Tao;Lingzhen Jiang

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院 [2]山东财经大学经济研究中心 [3]清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《公共行政评论》2023年第3期161-180,199,200,共22页Journal of Public Administration

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“我国财政风险和金融风险反馈循环及其协同治理研究”(21BJY003)。

摘　　要：近年来,城投公司非标准化债务的融资规模日益突出,但也伴随了不断出现的“爆雷”违约事件。论文以城投公司信托融资为研究对象,基于城投公司相互担保的行为视角,利用2010-2020年的政信类信托融资业务数据实证研究了信托“爆雷”事件背后可能的风险扩散机制。研究发现:(1)担保圈现象极大抬高了杠杆率,让当地城投公司之间很容易产生“火烧连营”的链条扩散效应。(2)基于空间计量模型的实证分析显示,相邻的地方政府之间在信托融资的表现上存在相互追随模仿的空间溢出性,特别是在担保圈特征上存在典型的竞高效应,从而带来邻里扩散效应。(3)政信类信托融资形成了以省级直辖市和副省级城市为发行地中心、以地级市为项目地中心的网络拓扑关系,项目地和发行地不一致问题为沿城市等级由低到高的隔空扩散提供了潜在机会。一城之内担保圈的链条扩散、相邻城市之间的邻里扩散以及项目地向发行地的隔空扩散三重叠加,使得我国城投公司信托融资呈现出较强的区域性集聚特征和系统性风险隐患。论文对认清城投公司债务风险扩散和集聚发生机制以及防范化解地方隐性债务风险具有重要的现实意义。In recent years,the scale of trust financing and other non-standard debts of urban investment corporations(UIC)has become increasingly prominent,as are the number of default events.Based on the behavioral perspective of mutual guarantee of the UICs,this study examimes government trust financing using the data from the political trust financing business from 2010 to 2020 and the possible diffusion mechanism lying behind these default events.This paper shows that the phenomenon of the guarantee circle greatly increased the leverage ratio,making it easy for local UICs to have a chain diffusion effect.Second,this study's empirical analysis,based on a spatial econometric model,shows that there is a spatial spillover of mutual imitation between adjacent local governments in the performance of trust financing,especially in the characteristics of the guarantee circle,thus bringing about the neighborhood diffusion effect.Third,trust financing has formed a network topological relationship with provincial municipalities and sub provincial cities as the center of distribution places and prefecture level cities as the center of project places.The inconsistency between them provides potential opportunities for space diffusion from lower-level cities to higher-level cities.These three risk diffusion effects of trust financing of UICs are easily regionally concentrated and thus cause systematic risks.The paper presents important practical insights for recognizing the mechanisms of debt risk diffusion and the agglomeration of UICs as well as for preventing and resolving local implicit debt risks.

关 键 词：影子银行 政信类信托融资 风险扩散 担保圈 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]