基于蒙特卡罗方法的粗纱机可靠性预测  

Reliability Prediction of Roving Frame Based on Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：董博超 杨灵芝 胡胜 DONG Bochao;YANG Lingzhi;HU Sheng(School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Xi'an Polytechnic University,Xi'an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安工程大学机电工程学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《轻工机械》2023年第3期78-83,共6页Light Industry Machinery

基　　金：中国纺织工业联合会科技指导性项目(2020070);西安工程大学博士启动基金项目(BS1613)。

摘　　要：为提高粗纱机生产效率及可靠性、降低维护成本,增加企业经济效益,课题组提出了一种粗纱机可靠性预测模型。该模型利用故障模式及影响和危害性分析(failure mode, effects and criticality analysis, FMECA)识别粗纱机的关键部件及其故障模式;将基于蒙特卡罗方法得到的寿命模拟值进行数据拟合,确定粗纱机的初选寿命分布类型;通过皮尔逊χ~2检验统计量检验证明分布的有效性,然后采用最大似然函数求解可靠性函数;最后以JWF1418A型自动落纱粗纱机为例进行可靠性预测。研究结果表明:链条和链轮对JWF1418A型自动落纱粗纱机可靠性影响较大,其寿命服从威布尔分布。该模型可推广应用至其他纺织机械设备中,为进一步进行粗纱机维护研究提供参考。In order to improve the production efficiency and reliability of the equipment,reduce the maintenance cost,and increase the economic benefits of enterprises,a reliability prediction model for roving frame was proposed.This model utilized failure mode,effects and criticality analysis(FMECA)to identify the key components of the roving frame and their failure modes.Based on the life simulation value obtained by Monte Carlo method,data fitting was carried out to determine the primary life distribution type of the roving frame.Pearsonχ2 test was used to prove the effectiveness of distribution.Then,the maximum likelihood function was used to solve the reliability function.Finally,took JWF1418A automatic doffing roving frame as an example to achieve the reliability prediction.The results show that the chain and chain wheel have a relatively great influence on the reliability of JWF1418A automatic doffing roving frame,and its service life follows Weibull distribution.The model can be applied to other textile machinery,and the results can provide reference for further research on roving frame maintenance.

关 键 词：纺织机械 可靠性预测 粗纱机 故障模式及影响和危害分析FMECA 蒙特卡罗方法 

分 类 号：TS103[轻工技术与工程—纺织工程] TH17[轻工技术与工程—纺织科学与工程]