基于加权证据权模型的丽江—小金河断裂中南段滑坡易发性评价  

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on Weight-of-Evidence Modeling in the Middle and South Sections of the Lijiang-Xiaojinhe Fault

作　　者：田鹏 常玉巧[1] 白仙富[1] 周青云[1] 孙滨[2] TIAN Peng;CHANG Yuqiao;BAI Xianfu;ZHOU Qingyun;SUN Bin(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China;Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [2]昆明理工大学国土资源学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《地震研究》2023年第3期332-342,共11页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AC100003);云南省地震局青年基金项目(2020K10).

摘　　要：丽江—小金河断裂全新世活动强烈、地震频发,沿断裂带的滑坡地质灾害极为发育。以断裂带中南段两侧10 km为研究区,根据地质地理环境和滑坡发育特征,选取高程、坡度、坡向、距活动断裂距离、距河流水系距离、距道路距离、工程地质岩组、降雨量、土地利用类型以及地震动峰值加速度10个影响因子为评价指标,运用加权证据权模型,开展丽江—小金河断裂中南段滑坡易发性评价,基于自然断点法将滑坡易发程度划分为高易发、中等易发、低易发和非易发4个级别,评价结果AUC值为0.81。结果显示:①研究区内滑坡受坡度、断裂、水系、岩性因素的影响程度更高;②高易发区和中等易发区主要沿断裂带和金沙江等主要河流水系两侧分布,在玉龙县、松坪乡、大东乡等周边区域较集中;③西川乡处于高易发区,但目前滑坡灾害点较少,应加强关注。The Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault has intense Holocene activity and frequent earthquakes;the geological disaster,landslide along the fault zone is incredibly developed.In this paper,places 10 km away from both sides of the middle and south sections of the fault zone are taken as the study areas.According to the geological and geographical environment and landslide development characteristics,10 factors are selected.They are topography(elevation,slope,aspect),lithology,distance of faults,roads,rivers,average annual precipitation,land use type,and peak ground acceleration.The weight of evidence method is used to establish the landslide vulnerability evaluation model to evaluate landslide vulnerability of the Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault.Based on the natural breakpoints method,landslide susceptibility is labled as“high”,“medium”,“low”and“none”.The assessed AUC-value is 0.809.The landslide in the study area is mainly affected by slope,fault,river system and lithology.The high-and medium-prone regions are distributed along the fault zone and the both sides of the Jinsha River and other major river systems.The high-prone areas are concentrated in the surrounding areas such as Yulong County,Songping Township and Dadong Township.Xichuan Village is located in the high-prone areas too.However,there are few landslide points.

关 键 词：丽江—小金河断裂 滑坡 加权证据权模型 易发性评价 

分 类 号：P315.94[天文地球—地震学]