滇西地区基于单体建筑的震后人员死亡评估方法研究  

Study on the Assessment Method of Post-Earthquake Fatality in Western Yunnan Based on the Single Building

作　　者：许瑞杰[1] 贾召亮 郑川[1] 吴艳梅[1] 壮延 曹彦波[1] 李兆隆[1] XU Ruijie;JIA Zhaoliang;ZHENG Chuan;WU Yanmei;ZHUANG Yan;CAO Yanbo;LI Zhaolong(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224

出　　处：《地震研究》2023年第3期394-402,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：2021年地震应急青年重点任务(CEAEDEM202118).

摘　　要：震后死亡人数是震后应急响应和救援工作的重要基础。为提高震后人员死亡评估精度,从云南县(区)城镇化率、建筑面积和建筑楼层数考虑,提出了一种基于单体建筑的人口分配方法;以建筑的致死性矩阵为基础,使用滇西地区建筑数据和历史地震死亡人数计算本地化修正系数,得到了该地区基于建筑类型的人员死亡评估方法;以2021年云南漾濞6.4级地震为例,对评估结果进行了检验和三维可视化。结果表明:①基于单体建筑的人口分布空间比传统的公里格网更加精细;②基于单体建筑评估的受灾人口和实际受灾人口之间的相对误差为3.7%,精度较好;③基于单体建筑致死性评估的漾濞地震人员死亡评估结果为0~3人,符合实际情况;④三维表达能够增加信息表达的直观性和丰富程度。Post-earthquake fatalities are an important basis for post-earthquake emergency response and rescue.To improve the accuracy of the assessment of post-earthquake fatality,a population distribution method based on the urbanization rate,built-up area,and the number of floors of the buildings in the counties of Yunnan province is proposed.Then,with the building-fatality matrix and the localized correction coefficient calculated by using the building data and historical earthquake fatalities in the western Yunnan region,the fatality-evaluation method based on the building type in this region is obtained,and the results are examined and visualized.The results show that:①The population-distribution space based on the single building is more refined than the result got by the traditional kilometer-grid;②The relative error between the assessed affected-population based on the single building and the actual affected-population is 3.7%;the accuracy is high;③Based on the method proposed in this paper,the fatality assessed in the Yangbi M S5.2 earthquake event on May 21,2021 is 0-3,which is in line with the actual statistics;④Three-dimensional expression can increase the visualization and richness of information expression.

关 键 词：单体建筑 致死性 死亡评估 漾濞地震 滇西地区 

分 类 号：P315.94[天文地球—地震学]