基于MaxEnt模型的西藏飞蝗在昌都市的适生区预测  

Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Tibetan Migratory Locust in Changdu City Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：谢聿源 李晨 赵宁宁 李文成 孙晶远 魏学红 XIE Yuyuan;LI Chen;ZHAO Ningning;LI Wencheng;SUN Jingyuan;WEI Xuehong(Resource&Environment College,Tibet Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University;Animal Science College,Tibet Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University;United Key Laboratories of Ecological Security,Tibet Autonomous Region;Key Laboratory Of Alpine Vegetation Ecological Security in Xizang,Nyingchi Tibet,860000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏农牧学院资源与环境学院 [2]西藏农牧学院动物科学学院 [3]西藏生态安全联合重点实验室 [4]西藏自治区高寒植被生态安全重点实验室,西藏林芝860000

出　　处：《高原农业》2023年第3期249-258,共10页Journal of Plateau Agriculture

基　　金：中央引导地方项目(XZ202101YD0016C);西藏生态安全联合重点实验室研究生开放基金项目(STAQ-2021Y-10);西藏自治区草原有害生物普查(2022-151)。

摘　　要：世界上的飞蝗亚种有十余种,西藏飞蝗主要分布在青藏高原,是目前世界上分布海拔最高的亚种。研究并明确西藏飞蝗在昌都市的适生区预测,对该地区早期蝗虫的预警、监测有重要意义。基于西藏飞蝗的分布数据与环境变量,结合MaxEnt与ArcGIS对西藏飞蝗在昌都市的适生区进行预测,通过刀切法检验与Pearson相关性分析筛选出影响西藏飞蝗分布的主导环境变量,共计有11个主导环境变量参与模型的二次构建。两次模拟的AUC值为0.958和0.949,结果达到“极好”,符合昌都西藏飞蝗的实际分布。高适生区主要位于昌都南部,中适生区主要位于昌都中部河谷地带,低适生区位于昌都中部县区,不适生区位于昌都北部。Tibetan migratory locusts are mainly distributed in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau,which is the highest subspecies in the world at present.It is of great significance for the early warning and monitoring of locusts in Changdu area to study and make clear the prediction of the suitable habitat of Tibetan migratory locusts.Based on the distribution data and environmental variables of Tibetan migratory locusts,combined with MaxEnt and ArcGIS,the suitable habitat of Tibetan migratory locusts in Changdu region was predicted.The dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of Tibetan migratory locusts were screened through knife cut test and Pearson correlation analysis,and a total of 11 dominant environmental variables participated in the secondary construction of the model.The AUC values of the two simulations were 0.958 and 0.949,and the results were"excellent",which was consistent with the actual distribution of Tibetan migratory locusts in Changdu.The high fitness area was mainly located in the south of Changdu,and the medium fitness area was mainly located in the valley in the middle of Changdu,but the low fitness area was located in the central county of Changdu,and the unsuitable area was located in the north of Changdu.

关 键 词：西藏飞蝗 MAXENT 适生区预测 昌都市 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]