基于MaxEnt模型的濒危植物大花黄牡丹潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of Potentially Suitable Area of Endangered Plant Paeonia ludlowii Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：徐慧 佟珂珂 姚霞珍[1] 邢震[1] XU Hui;TONG Keke;YAO Xiazhen;XING Zhen(Resources&Environment College,Tibet Agriculture&Animal Husbandry University,Nyingchi Tibet,860000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏农牧学院资源与环境学院,西藏林芝860000

出　　处：《高原农业》2023年第3期278-290,共13页Journal of Plateau Agriculture

基　　金：农业资源与环境学科建设项目(533320003)。

摘　　要：大花黄牡丹(Paeonia ludlowii)是西藏特有物种,具有较高的观赏、药用和育种价值,预测其当前和未来不同气候情景下的潜在适生区,可为大花黄牡丹的资源保护与利用提供科学依据。基于大花黄牡丹的27个有效分布点和7个环境因子数据,利用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS软件,确定影响其地理分布的主要环境因子,预测了其在当前(1970~2000)和未来(2050 s、2070 s)的潜在适生区。结果表明,平均的训练集AUC值为0.996(>0.9),模型的模拟结果准确;海拔、bio6、bio4、bio3和bio19是影响大花黄牡丹分布的主要环境因子,适宜范围分别为2603.01~4003.83 m、-13.33~-2.82℃、533.42~626.78、40.20~48.67及8.88~14.71 mm,温度是影响大花黄牡丹分布的关键因素;大花黄牡丹当前时期的高适生区主要集中在西藏东南部的林芝市和山南市,在四川省岷江流域和云南省元谋县也有少量的高适生区分布;未来时期RCP4.5、RCP8.5气候情景下,大花黄牡丹总适生区面积均大幅度增加;大花黄牡丹不同时期适生区的质心均位于西藏林芝市,在未来气候变暖情况下质心呈向西北方向迁移的趋势;相较于RCP4.5情景,大花黄牡丹对更高的CO_(2)排放情景(RCP8.5)更为敏感。气候变暖对大花黄牡丹的分布有积极影响。未来大花黄牡丹潜在适生区有向高纬度、高海拔地区扩张的趋势。在当前的高适生区可加强对大花黄牡丹天然居群的就地保护,未来可在新增的适生区可开展引种栽培工作。Paeonia ludlowii is an endemic species in Tibet,known for its high value in terms of ornamental,medicinal and breeding purposes.Predicting its potential suitable areas under different climate scenarios can provide a scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of this species.This study was based on the data of 27 effective distribution sites and 7 environmental factors of P.ludlowii,and the MaxEnt model and geographic information system were used to determine the major environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of P.ludlowii and predict the potential suitable area of this plant in the current(1970~2000)and the future(2050s,2070s).The results showed that the average AUC values of its training set was 0.996(>0.9)and the simulation results of the model were accurate.The elevation,bio6,bio4,bio3 and bio19 were the major environmental factors affecting the distribution of P.ludlowii.The suitable ranges for these factors were determined as follows:elevation(2603.01-4003.83 m),bio6(-13.33 to-2.82℃),bio4(533.42-626.78),bio3(40.20-48.67),and bio19(8.88-14.71 mm).Temperature was found to be the most critical factor affecting the distribution of P.ludlowii.The highly suitable area of P.ludlowii were mainly concentrated in Nyingchi and Shannan in the southeast of Tibet,with a few additional highly suitable areas distributed in the Min River basin of Sichuan province and Yuanmou County of Yunnan Province.Under the future climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the total suitable area of P.ludlowii would be increased greatly.The centroids of the suitable area of P.ludlowii in different periods were all located in Nyingchi,Tibet,and with the climate warming,the centroids tended to migrate to the northwest.Compared with RCP4.5 scenario,P.ludlowii was more sensitive to higher CO2 emission scenario(RCP8.5).Climate warming had a positive effect on the distribution of P.ludlowii.In the future,the potential suitable area of P.ludlowii has a tendency to expand to high latitude and high elevation areas.Bas

关 键 词：大花黄牡丹 气候变化 潜在适生区 MaxEnt模型 环境因子 

分 类 号：S792.11[农业科学—林木遗传育种]