雄安新区土地利用变化及其经济影响预测研究  

Prediction of Land Use Change and Its EconomicImpact in Xiong′an New Area

作　　者：何旭东 石强 王炜 林姿静 于航鉴 滕浩 HE Xudong;SHI Qiang;WANG Wei;LIN Zijing;YU Hangjian;TENG Hao(School of Surveying,Mapping and Geographical Sciences,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学测绘与地理科学学院,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《测绘与空间地理信息》2023年第6期140-143,共4页Geomatics & Spatial Information Technology

摘　　要：雄安新区承担着疏解北京非首都功能的职责,发挥着促进京津冀地区协同发展的重要使命,预测其规划与基础设施建设发展的经济影响,对于推进新区高质量发展具有重要科学指导意义。本研究首先基于InVEST模型与Dinamica EGO模型模拟了在生境质量约束下雄安新区建设用地的时空演变,并据建设用地类型设置了相应人口密度,预测分析了2035年新区的人口发展规模。基于未来人口规模利用SASI模型预测了2035年雄安新区各镇的经济发展趋势,设置了公路交通基础设施、铁路交通基础设施、公路与铁路交通基础设施3种情景,探究了3种情景下雄安新区土地利用变化及其社会经济发展影响。Xiong′an new area undertakes the responsibility of relieving Beijing's non-capital functions and plays an important role in promoting the coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.Predicting the economic impact of its planning and infrastructure construction development has important scientific guiding significance for promoting the high-quality development of the new area.Firstly,based on InVEST model and Dinamica EGO model,this study simulated the spatial-temporal evolution of construction land in Xiong′an New Area under the constraint of habitat quality,set the corresponding population density according to the type of construction land,and predicted and analyzed the population development scale of the new area in 2035.Based on the future population size,the economic development trend of towns in Xiong′an New Area in 2035 is predicted by using SASI model.Three scenarios of highway transportation infrastructure,railway transportation infrastructure,highway and railway transportation infrastructure are set up to explore the land use change and its impact on social and economic development of Xiong′an New Area under the three scenarios.

关 键 词：雄安新区 土地利用 可达性 Dinamica EGO模型 SASI模型 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]