基于MIROC气候模式的统计降尺度偏差订正方法及在雅砻江流域的应用  

Correction Method of Statistical Downscaling Bias Based on MIROC Climate Model and its Application in Yalong River Basin

作　　者：王雅琳 董晓华[1,2] 喻丹 董立俊[1,2] 杨晨 秦兴隔 WANG Ya-lin;DONG Xiao-hua;YU Dan;DONG Li-jun;YANG Chen;QIN Xing-ge(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei Province,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第6期66-73,78,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：欧洲空间局、中国国家遥感中心项目(58516);中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司项目(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02-09);国家自然科学基金项目(52109058)。

摘　　要：雅砻江流域是中国第三大水电基地,准确模拟雅砻江流域未来气候变化情况可以为流域内合理高效开发水资源提供科学依据。为了评估该流域不同情景下未来气候变化情况,使用1970-2005年雅砻江流域13个气象站数据,采用CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5)中MIROC气候模式数据,经过SDSM(Statistical DownScaling Model)模型将低分辨率的栅格数据降尺度至站点数据,同时采用系数订正法、频率匹配法耦合订正日降水量的偏差和频率分布,最后使用订正后的数据分析雅砻江流域未来气候变化情况。结果表明:(1)订正后的日尺度降水的确定性系数从0.12提高到0.2;(2)雅砻江流域未来气温和降水总体均呈上升趋势;(3)在3种不同的代表性浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)这3种排放情景下雅砻江流域未来最高气温分别增加0.71、1.16、1.35℃,且9,11,12月增加较为明显;未来最低气温分别增加0.72、0.83、1.08℃,且8,9,12月增加较为明显;(4)在2022-2100年未来时期3种排放情景下,雅砻江流域未来降水均呈增加趋势,日均降水分别增加117.6%、131.7%、124.2%;春季RCP4.5降水增幅最大,夏季辐射强迫越强,雅砻江流域降水增加越明显。雅砻江流域未来气温升高、降水增多将会提高极端气候事件出现的频率。未来水资源分布不均程度将进一步加剧,气候变暖带来的干旱,洪水等自然灾害将会对水电站的建设和运行产生不利影响,分析结果可以为雅砻江水电基地水资源开发提供科学依据。The Yalong River Basin is the third largest hydropower base in China.Accurately simulating the future climate change in the Yalong River Basin can provide a scientific basis for the rational and efficient development of water resources in the basin.In order to evaluate and simulate the future climate change in the basin under different scenarios,this paper uses the data of 13 meteorological stations in the Yalong River Basin from 1970 to 2005,it adopts the MIROC climate model data in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)and it passes through the Statistical DownScaling Model(SDSM)downscales low-resolution raster data to measured site data.In this paper,the coefficient correction method and the frequency matching method are used to couple and correct the deviation and frequency distribution of daily precipitation.In this paper,the coefficient correction method and the frequency matching method are used to couple the correction of the deviation and frequency distribution of daily precipitation.Finally,the corrected data is used to analyze the future climate change in the Yalong River Basin.The results show that①After the correction,the certainty coefficient of daily-scale precipitation is improved from 0.12 to 0.2;②the future temperature and precipitation in the Yalong River basin show an overall increasing trend;③Under the three emission scenarios of three different representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5),the future maximum air temperature in the Yalong River Basin will increase by 0.71,1.16,and 1.35℃,respectively.The increase in December is more obvious;the future minimum temperature will increase by 0.72,0.83 and 1.08℃respectively,and the increase will be more obvious in August,September and December.④Under the three emission scenarios for the future period 2022-2100,the future precipitation in the Yalong River Basin will show an increasing trend,and the average daily precipitation will increase by 117.6%,131.7%,124.2%;the largest increase in RCP4.5 precipitatio

关 键 词：气候变化 SDSM 气温 降水 偏差订正 情景分析 

分 类 号：TV1[水利工程] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]