城市内涝风险评估及风险管理对策研究  

Research on the Urban Waterlogging Risk Assessment and Risk Management Countermeasures

作　　者：冯博[1] 朱建国[1] 佘磊 FENG Bo;ZHU Jian-guo;SHE Lei(Jiangsu Urban Planning and Design Institute Co.Ltd.,Nanjing 210019,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省城市规划设计研究院有限公司,江苏南京210019

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第6期101-106,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51608106)。

摘　　要：以常州市某地区为研究案例,采用内涝积水情景模拟定量分析雨水系统设施的排涝能力及积水情况,构建了基于“危险性、脆弱性、暴露性”的内涝风险评估指标体系,科学评估内涝风险等级。在风险评估基础上,提出排涝方案调整、风险避让、风险应对等管理措施。研究结果表明:①采用多因子分析评估内涝灾害的影响,使得评估结论更综合,能够为内涝治理提供可靠的依据。②城南片防涝由“完全自排”调整为“低水位立足自排、高水位灵活抽排”能够有效降低片区积水风险。③滨河洼地风险片区宜优先布局亲水性用地或设施,对确需建设的其他类型用地,明确规划竖向高程不应低于3.9 m。④应注重绿灰结合的风险应对,加强源头管控和公共海绵设施建设。Urban waterlogging threatens people’s life and property safety seriously.A scientific assessment of urban waterlogging risk and corresponding measures are effective ways to reduce waterlogging losses.In this paper,taking a certain area of Changzhou City as a research case,MIKE FLOOD model is used to carry out drainage capacity analysis of rainwater pipes and urban flood simulation,and quantitatively analyze the drainage capacity of rainwater system facilities through waterlogging scenario simulation.Combining scenario simulation method with index evaluation method,the index system of waterlogging risk assessment based on“Risk,vulnerability and exposure”is used to assess urban waterlogging risks.The waterlogging risk assessment system is mainly divided into the target layer,the criterion layer and the index layer.The main indicators include the depth of standing water,the length of standing water,the drainage capacity of the pipe network,the ground elevation of the site,the regional importance and the intensity of development and construction.According to the evaluation results,this paper focuses on the implementation of risk management for key issues in the flood control system.It is suggested that the systematic problems should be solved by optimizing the drainage scheme.Flexible adjustment shall be carried out for waterfront waterlogging prone depressions to avoid risks.Aiming at the problem of urban construction mode,the mode of combining green and gray facilities is implemented.This paper puts forward management measures such as adjustment of drainage scheme,risk avoidance and risk response,so as to provide scientific support for improving the urban waterlogging risk system.The results show that:①Multi-factor analysis is used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging disaster,which makes the evaluation results more comprehensive and can provide a reliable basis for waterlogging management.②The adjustment of waterlogging prevention in the southern part of the city from“completely self-draining”to“

关 键 词：内涝风险评估 层次分析法 风险管理 风险避让 风险应对 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]