1961—2020年阜新市大风及灾情特征  

Characteristics of Gale and Disasters in Fuxin City from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：舒海燕 白佳宁 范野 孙可 陶倩 杨晓彤 常相伊 张旭 SHU Hai-yan;BAI Jia-ning;FAN Ye;SUN Ke;TAO Qian;YANG Xiao-tong;CHANG Xiang-yi;ZHANG Xu(Fuxin Meteorological Bureau,Fuxin 123000,China)

机构地区：[1]阜新市气象局,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第4期98-104,121,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：2023年辽宁省气象局科研基金项目(202315);2022年辽宁省气象局科研项目(ZD202208、ZD202257)。

摘　　要：基于1961—2020年阜新市逐日最大风速风向及逐月大气环流指数资料,应用多种统计学方法对阜新市的大风日数、灾害特征及大风日数的影响因子进行分析,结果表明:近60 a阜新市大风日数年变化呈减少趋势,彰武县、阜蒙县的气候倾向率分别为-0.962、-3.135 d/10 a,趋势系数分别为-0.124和-0.380。大风日数出现较多的年代为1960 s和2000 s,较少的年代为1980 s和2010 s,春季和4月份大风日数均最多,夏季和8月均最少,两县的大风日数变化特征呈一致性。大风日数有50~60、8~10 a的振荡周期,彰武县在2014年发生了突变,阜蒙县在1980和2003年都发生了突变,突变后大风日数都呈现出明显减少的趋势。风向以偏南风为主,其次是偏北风,东风占比最低,原因可能与蒙古气旋和地形有关。近30 a共发生84次重风灾,均出现在4—9月,风灾多伴随着冰雹、暴雨、雷电等灾害同时出现,其中冰雹对作物的危害最大(共26次,占39.3%),暴雨次之(共24次,占35.7%),雷电最小(共12次,占14.3%),其造成的经济损失以6—8月最为严重,约占80%,9月和4—5月各约占10%。大气环流指数APVAI、APVII、NHPVAI、NHPVII的变化均呈显著减少趋势,气候倾向率分别为-3.374、-1236.4、-10.003、-4215.4/10 a,趋势系数分别为-0.815、-0.800、-0.865、-0.792,两县大风日数与这4个影响因子均呈正相关关系,但相关性差异较大,阜蒙县的相关性明显大于彰武县,且其相关性呈极显著。Based on the data of the daily maximum wind speed,wind direction and monthly atmospheric circulation index in Fuxin from 1961 to 2020,various statistical methods were used to analyze the number of gale days,the characteristics of disaster and the influencing factors of gale days.The results show that the annual variation of gale days in Fuxin in recent 60 years shows a decreasing trend.The climate tendency rates of Zhangwu County and Fumeng County are-0.962 d/10 a and-3.135 d/10 a,and the trend coefficient is-0.124 and-0.380.The years with more gale days are 1960 s and 2000 s,and the years with less gale days are 1980 s and 2010 s.The number of gale days was the most in spring and April,and the lowest in summer and August.The variation characteristics of gale days in the two counties were consistent.The number of gale days has an oscillatory period of 50~60 years and 8~10 years.Zhangwu County mutated in 2014,and Fumeng County mutated in 1980 and 2003.The number of gale days showed an obvious decreasing trend after the mutation.The wind direction is mainly southward,followed by northerly wind,and the proportion of easterly wind is the lowest,which may be related to Mongolian cyclone and topography.In the past 30 years,84 wind disasters occurred,all of which occurred from April to September.Wind disasters are often accompanied by hail,rainstorm,lightning and other disasters.Hail is the most harmful to crops(26 times,accounting for 39.3%),followed by rainstorm(24 times,accounting for 35.7%).Lightning is the smallest(12 times,accounting for 14.3%),and its economic loss is the most serious in June to August,accounting for 80%.September and April to May accounted for about 10%.The changes of atmospheric circulation index APVAI,APVII,NHPVAI and NHPVII showed a significant decreasing trend,and the climate tendency rates were-3.374,-1236.4,-10.003 and-4215.4/10 a.The trend coefficients were-0.815,-0.800,-0.865 and-0.792.The number of gale days in the two counties was positively correlated with these four influencing facto

关 键 词：大风日数 MORLET小波分析 MTT和Mann-Kendall方法 阜新市 

分 类 号：P458.123[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]