数字经济能提升超大特大城市承载力吗?——以北京市为例  

Can digital economy enhance the carrying capacity of super‑large and mega cities?

作　　者：李国正[1] 郑宏林 张彦钊 LI Guozheng;ZHENG Honglin;ZHANG Yanzhao(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第6期116-127,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重点项目“京津冀协同发展中城乡劳动力转移与市民化问题研究”(批准号:19YJA004)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告指出“加快转变超大特大城市发展方式”。数字经济打破了集聚效应的空间限制,为超大特大城市发展方式转变提供了新思路。该研究以北京市为例,基于数字经济对城市承载力作用机理的理论分析,通过构建数字经济和城市承载力指标体系,实证检验数字经济与城市承载力的短期与长期间动态关系;选取2010—2020年北京市数字经济相关企业的上市信息作为数字经济的代理变量,运用加权平均中心分析(WMC)及标准差椭圆分析(SDE)方法,对北京市数字经济企业的空间演化进行分析。研究结果表明:①数字经济通过优化就业结构、创造就业岗位、提升交通效率、线上场景替代等路径,能够显著提升超大特大城市承载能力,但存在一定的滞后性;随着时间推移,这种影响将会逐渐增强。②数字经济能够发挥较强的离心作用,促进相关经济活动向城市外围扩散,从而降低中心城区的承载压力,这在一定程度上突破了传统的“中心-外围”理论。总之,数字经济能够通过提升城市承载能力以及缓解中心城区承载压力两个维度推动“大城市病”治理,从而为超大特大城市人口政策调整和城乡区域发展策略优化提供科学依据。据此,该研究认为,应在促进超大特大城市的数字经济发展、推动超大特大城市企业数字化转型、提高政府数字化服务能力以及提升城镇弱势群体城市融入能力等方面综合施策,充分利用好数字经济对超大特大城市承载力的促进作用,以此实现超大特大城市的高质量可持续发展。The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out the initiative of‘accelerating the transformation of the development mode of super-large and mega cities.’The digital economy has broken the spatial limitation of the agglomeration effect and provided new insights into the transformation of the development mode of super-large and mega cities.Based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the digital economy on the carrying capacity of cities,we empirically tested the short-term and long-term dynamic relationship between the digital economy and the carrying capacity of cities by constructing an index system of the digital economy and the carrying capacity of cities and adopting the vector error correction model(VECM).Furthermore,based on the perspective of new economic geography,we used the listing information of digital economy-related enterprises in Beijing from 2010 to 2020 for this study.The spatial evolution of digital economy-related enterprises in Beijing was analyzed by using the weighted mean center analysis(WMC)and the standard deviation ellipse analysis(SDE)methods.The results showed that:①The digital economy could significantly improve the carrying capacity of super-large and mega cities through the paths of optimizing employment structure,creating job opportunities,improving transportation efficiency,and online scene substitution.However,there would be a certain lag,and this impact would gradually increase over time.②The digital economy could play a strong centrifugal role and promote the diffusion of related economic activities to the periphery of cities,thus reducing the bearing pressure on the central urban area and thus breaking through the traditional‘center-periphery’theory to a certain extent.In conclusion,the digital economy can promote the management of‘big city disease’by enhancing the carrying capacity of cities and relieving the carrying pressure of central urban areas,thus providing a scientific basis for adjusting the population po

关 键 词：数字经济 城市承载力 超大特大城市 大城市病 新经济地理学 中心-外围理论 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F299