中国农村信息化、农业产业化与乡村生态化耦合协调发展  

Coupling coordinated development of rural informatization, agriculturalindustrialization, and rural ecologicalization in China

作　　者：张康洁 于法稳[1,2] 李福夺 ZHANG Kangjie;YU Fawen;LI Fuduo(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Research Center for Eco‑Environmental Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院生态环境经济研究中心,北京100732 [3]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第6期182-195,共14页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程A类项目“农业农村绿色发展理论与政策研究”(批准号:NFS2018A01);国家社会科学基金重大项目“生态补偿与乡村绿色发展协同推进体制机制与政策体系研究”(批准号:18ZDA048);中国社会科学院博士后创新项目“农户绿色生产的动力机制与政策保障研究”;中国博士后科学基金面上项目“耕地质量保护目标下农户绿肥轮作采纳动力机制研究”(批准号:2021M693446)。

摘　　要：新时代,推动农村信息化、农业产业化与乡村生态化“三化”融合发展是实现农业农村现代化的必然选择,也是全面推进乡村振兴战略的重要抓手。该研究分析了中国农村信息化、农业产业化、乡村生态化三者之间的耦合协调关系,在建立相关指标体系基础上,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、空间相关性分析及空间面板回归模型,探究2010—2019年中国省域“三化”综合评价水平和耦合协调度的时空分异特征与影响因素。结果表明:①研究期内农村信息化、农业产业化与乡村生态化的综合评价水平整体呈上升趋势,具有明显的地区发展不平衡和系统性差异。②“三化”耦合协调度不高,其均值保持勉强协调型,但整体呈增长态势,且存在明显的空间非均衡性分布特征,初级协调型省份数量从3个增加至11个。③“三化”耦合协调度存在显著的空间正向自相关关系和空间聚集特征,空间关联类型以H-H和L-L集聚为主;冷热点区则具有聚合式面状分布和迁跃性特征。④“三化”耦合协调程度主要受人均GDP、城镇化水平、农业财政支出和农村居民恩格尔系数的显著影响,并存在空间溢出效应;各因素对东中西部地区耦合协调度的影响具有异质性。对此,提出坚持分类施策,逐步缩小“三化”地区差异和系统差异;加强跨区域协作,提升“三化”耦合协调发展水平;注重多源驱动,增强协调发展动力等建议。It is an inevitable choice in the new era to promote the integrated development of rural informatization,agricultural industrialization,and rural ecologicalization for realizing agricultural and rural modernization,which is also an essential basis in China to promote the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.This study analyzed the coupling coordination relationships of rural informatization,agricultural industrialization,and rural ecologicalization in China.Based on the establishment of a related index system,this study also examined the comprehensive evaluation level and the characteristics and influencing factors of the spatio‑temporal differentiation in coupling coordination at the provincial level in China from 2010 to 2019 using the entropy method,the coupling coordination degree model,the spatial correlation analysis,and the spatial panel regress model.The result showed that:①During the study period,the comprehensive evaluation level of China’s rural informatization,agricultural industrialization,and rural ecologicalization presented an upward trend,with obvious regional development imbalance and systematic differences.②The coupling coordination degree of rural informatization,agricultural industrialization,and rural ecologicalization was not high,and its mean value was barely coordinated,but the overall trend was increasing.Moreover,the coupling coordination degree was obvious non-balanced in space,and the number of primary coordinated provinces increased from 3 to 11.③The coupling coordination degree presented significant positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration characteristics.The main spatial correlation types were‘H-H’and‘L-L’agglomeration models.The cold-hot spots were characterized by aggregated planar distribution and transition.④The coupling coordination degree was significantly affected by per capita GDP,urbanization level,rural aging degree,agricultural fiscal expenditure,and the Engel coefficient of rural residents,and a spatial spillover effe

关 键 词：农村信息化 农业产业化 乡村生态化 耦合协调 时空分异 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F303.3