天津市南部平原地面沉降区新兴风险评估  

Emerging risk assessment of areas subject to land subsidence in the southern plain of Tianjin,China

作　　者：于海若 宫辉力[4,5,6,7,8,9] 陈蓓蓓[4,5,6,7,8,9] 周超凡[4,5,6,7,8,9] YU Hairuo;GONG Huili;CHEN Beibei;ZHOU Chaofan(School of Public Administration,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,China;Key Laboratory of Surveying and Mapping Science and Geospatial Information Technology of MNR,CASM,Beijing 100039,China;State Key Laboratory of Geo-Information Engineering,Xi’an 710054,China;College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;Base of the State Key Laboratory of Urban Environmental Process and Digital Modeling,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;Key Laboratory of 3D Information Acquisition and Application,MOE,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;Key Laboratory of Mechanism,Prevention and Mitigation of Land Subsidence,MOE,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院公共管理学院,烟台264005 [2]自然资源部测绘科学与地球空间信息技术重点实验室,北京100039 [3]地理信息工程国家重点实验室,西安710054 [4]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [5]首都师范大学资源环境与地理信息系统北京市重点实验室,北京100048 [6]首都师范大学城市环境过程与数字模拟国家重点实验室培育基地,北京100048 [7]首都师范大学三维信息获取与应用教育部重点实验室,北京100048 [8]首都师范大学地面沉降机理与防控教育部重点实验室,北京100048 [9]首都师范大学水资源安全北京实验室,北京100048

出　　处：《自然资源遥感》2023年第2期182-192,共11页Remote Sensing for Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“京津冀典型区地下空间演化与地面沉降响应机理研究”(编号:41930109);国家自然科学基金面上项目“南水进京背景下地面沉降演化机理”(编号:41771455);地理信息工程国家重点实验室和自然资源部测绘科学与地球空间信息技术重点实验室开放课题项目“天津沿海地区地面沉降与海平面上升叠加效应及其风险分析”(编号:2021-02-09)共同资助。

摘　　要：新兴技术的发展在优化城市建设和改善人类生活的同时,也存在着一定的风险,进而引发城市安全问题。天津市是中国的沿海城市,其沿海海平面的不断上升,南水进津改变水循环,地下空间的开发利用,这些因素与地面沉降进行叠加耦合都将成为天津市新兴风险评价的重要因素。文章首先对天津市南部平原沉降信息进行获取,叠加海平面上升速率预测天津市自然海岸线后退情况。基于此,利用机器学习方法(XGBoost)预测天津市相对海平面上升带来的高风险因素。此外,针对南水北调-地下空间开发的应用带来的新兴风险进行分析,揭示南水进津和地铁建设运行对天津市城市安全的响应规律。这些地面沉降与现代人类活动结合带来的新兴风险分析研究将为区域防灾减灾提供科学依据,提高城市抵御灾害的能力。The development of emerging technologies poses some risks while improving urban construction and human life,thus further causing urban safety problems.Tianjin is a coastal city in China,where the coastal sea level keeps increasing,water cycling is changed by the water supply of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,and the underground space is subject to development and utilization.These factors,coupled with land subsidence,are all critical for the assessment of emerging risks in Tianjin.This study extracted information on the land subsidence of the southern plain in Tianjin and then predicted the retreat of the natural coastline in Tianjin by combining the sea level rise rate.Accordingly,this study predicted the high-risk factors brought by relative sea level rise in Tianjin using a machine learning method(XGBoost).In addition,this study analyzed the emerging risks caused by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the development and utilization of underground space and revealed the response patterns of the water supply and the construction and operation of subways to the urban safety of Tianjin.The study on the emerging risks brought about by the combination of land subsidence and modern human activities will provide a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation and improve cities’ability to resist disasters.

关 键 词：地面沉降 新兴风险 相对海平面上升 XGBoost 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] P237[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]