雅砻江流域降水时空特征及径流响应分析  

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation and Runoff Response in Yalong River Basin

作　　者：常新雨 刘斌 贾毓功 付智宇 CHANG Xinyu;LIU Bin;JIA Yugong;FU Zhiyu(Kunming Power Exchange Center,Kunming 650000,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明电力交易中心,云南昆明650000 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第6期9-17,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点支持项目(U1865202);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52039004)。

摘　　要：在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,全球极端气候频发,流域降水发生了深刻变化,因此有必要深入挖掘降水径流的内在特性及变化规律,增强人类在变化环境下对流域水文气象要素演变规律的认识。通过引入Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、R/S分析法、滑动t检验和Morlet小波变换,解析了雅砻江流域气象站点近50 a来降水的年际趋势、突变识别和周期特征,同时以相关系数衡量了径流对降水的响应程度。结果表明:流域降水Hurst指数均大于0.5,其中清水河、石渠和中甸站趋势性较为显著;同时受变化环境的持续影响,流域降水在时域和频域均存在多尺度显著性周期,降水在1.0~2.5 a的小周期和4~6 a的大周期间不断振荡;且得到了流域径流对降水的强响应气象站点,其中除中甸站外,其余站点的趋势性并不显著。研究成果可为非线性径流预报模型驱动因子筛选提供科学依据。Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities,extreme climate occurs frequently around the world,and the precipitation in the studied basin has undergone profound changes,so it is necessary to further explore the inherent characteristics and variation laws of precipitation and runoff and thus enhance the understanding of the evolution laws of hydrological and meteorological elements in the basin under the changing environment.In this paper,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,R/S analysis,moving t-test,and Morlet wavelet transform are introduced to analyze the interannual trend and identify abrupt changes and periodic characteristics of precipitation at meteorological stations in the Yalong River Basin in the past 50 years,and the response degree of runoff to precipitation is measured by correlation coefficient.The results show that the Hurst index of precipitation in the basin is greater than 0.5,and the precipitation trends at Qingshuihe,Shiqu,and Zhongdian stations are more significant;at the same time,due to the continuous influence of the changing environment,the precipitation in the basin has a multi-scale significant period in both time and frequency domains,and the precipitation fluctuates during small periods of 1.0~2.5 years and large periods of 4~6 years.Besides,the meteorological stations with strong runoff responses to precipitation in the basin are obtained,and the precipitation trend of other stations is not significant except Zhongdian station.The research results can provide a scientific basis for selecting driving factors of the nonlinear runoff forecasting model.

关 键 词：水文气象要素 时空特征 径流响应 R/S分析法 雅砻江流域 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]