兵团高排放产业碳排放的系统动力学分析  

System Dynamics Analysis of Carbon Emissions from High Emission Industries in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps

作　　者：王雅莉 朱金鹤[1] Wang Yali;Zhu Jinhe(College of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《新疆农垦经济》2023年第6期35-46,58,共13页Xinjiang State Farms Economy

基　　金：兵团社科基金一般项目(项目编号:19YB13);教育部社科基金项目(项目编号:21YJA790086)。

摘　　要：产业低碳发展是可持续发展与科学发展的内在要求,也是“资源节约型,环境友好型”两型社会建设的必由之路。文章运用Vensim-PLE的仿真模拟软件构建了一个包含经济发展子系统、能源消费子系统与碳排放子系统在内的兵团高排放产业低碳发展模型。研究得到以下结论:第一,识别了兵团十大高排放产业:电力热力的生产和供应业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、非金属矿物制品业、食品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、农副食品加工业、纺织业、煤炭开采和洗选业、化学纤维制造业;第二,兵团高排放产业的碳排放表现为波动上升与两极分化趋势;第三,在兵团高排放产业低碳发展的路径仿真上,单因素下能源消费结构调整效果>产业规模调整效果>环境治理投入比例调整效果>科教投入比例调整效果,组合因素下情景条件设置越严格,调整效果越好。基于此,从降低高排产业产出比重、推进可再生能源利用和改革低碳经济的政策制度三方面提出了碳减排的相关对策。Low carbon development in industries is an inherent requirement for sustainable and scientific development,and also a necessary path for the construction of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society.The article uses Vensim-PLE simulation software to construct a low-carbon development model for the XPCC high emission industries,including economic development subsystem,energy consumption subsystem,and carbon emission subsystem.The following conclusions have been drawn from the study.Firstly,the paper identified the top ten high emission industries in the XPCC,which are the industries of production and supply of electricity and heat,manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products,processing of petroleum,coal and other fuels,non-metallic mineral products,food manufacturing,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,agricultural and sideline food processing and textile industry,coal mining and washing industry,and chemical fiber manufacturing industry.Secondly,the carbon emissions of the high emission industries in the XPCC show a fluctuating and polarized trend.Thirdly,in the simulation of the low carbon development path of the high emission industries in the XPCC,under single factors,the adjustment effect of energy consumption structure is most effect,followed by the adjustment of industrial scale,which is more effective than that of environmental governance investment proportion,which is followed by the adjustment effect of science and education investment proportion shows the least effect.The stricter the scenario conditions are set under combined factors,the better the adjustment effect.Based on this,relevant measures for carbon emission reduction have been proposed from three aspects:reducing the proportion of output in high emission industries,promoting the utilization of renewable energy,and reforming policies and systems for low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：高排放产业 碳排放 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]