数字经济驱动中国对外贸易竞争力提升的机制与路径——基于有调节的中介效应检验  

Mechanisms and Paths of China’’s Foreign Trade Competitiveness Improvement Driven by Digital Economy——Based on a Moderated Intermediation Effect Test

作　　者：胡颖[1] 李倩男 HU Ying;LI Qiannan(College of International Trade,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学国际贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《经济论坛》2023年第6期34-45,共12页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“以中哈产能合作促进区域命运共同体建设研究”(18XGJ002)。

摘　　要：数字经济发展过程中释放的数字红利有助于我国外贸行业发展走向高端数字化,全面提升我国对外贸易竞争力。文章基于2013—2020年中国31个省域层面的面板数据,采用有调节的中介效应模型实证检验数字经济驱动中国对外贸易竞争力的机制与路径。研究结果表明:数字经济能够正向驱动中国对外贸易竞争力,科研水平在数字经济驱动路径中存在正向中介效应;科研水平的中介效应具有地区异质性,东部地区的科研水平中介效应正向显著,而中西部地区的中介效应不显著;地区产业结构升级对数字经济驱动中国对外贸易竞争力的调节效应正向显著,且产业结构升级能够有效提升中国对外贸易竞争力。最后,文章基于研究结论,从推动数字经济发展、分区域制定发展战略、优化地区产业结构方面提出对策建议。The digital dividend released during the development of the digital economy contributes to China’s foreign trade industry developing towards high-end digitalization and comprehensively enhancing the competitive⁃ness of China’s foreign trade.This paper empirically tests the mechanisms and paths of the digital economy driv⁃ing China’s foreign trade competitiveness based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China at the provincial level from 2013 to 2020 using a moderated mediating effects model.The results show that:The digital economy can posi⁃tively drive China’s foreign trade competitiveness,and there is a positive mediating effect of scientific research lev⁃el in the digital economy driving path;the mediating effect of scientific research level has regional heterogeneity,in which the mediating effect of scientific research level in the eastern region is positively significant,while the mediat⁃ing effect in the central and western regions is not significant;the moderating effect of regional industrial structure upgrading on China’s foreign trade competitiveness driven by digital economy is positively significant,and indus⁃trial structure upgrading can effectively enhance China’s foreign trade competitiveness.Based on the findings of the study,this paper puts forward policy recommendations in terms of promoting the development of digital econo⁃my,formulating development strategies by region,and optimizing regional industrial structure to help improve China’s foreign trade competitiveness.

关 键 词：数字经济 对外贸易竞争力 科研水平 产业结构升级 中介效应 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F752