西太平洋火山带大喷发与中国大陆东部强震的相关性  

Correlation Between Large Eruptions in the Western Pacific Volcanic Belt and Strong Earthquakes in Eastern China

作　　者：刁守中[1] 李霞[1] 王志才[1] 崔华伟[1] DIAO Shouzhong;LI Xia;WANG Zhicai;CUI Huawei(Shandong Earthquake Agency,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,济南250014

出　　处：《华南地震》2023年第2期1-10,共10页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：中国地震局老专家科研基金(201908)。

摘　　要：对1586年以来的西太平洋火山带VEI≥5级火山大喷发与中国大陆东部M≥6强震的相关性进行了分析,结果表明,随着西太平洋火山带大喷发,大陆东部一般滞后半年至5年开始强震丛集,且火山连续性大喷发后大陆东部可能出现强震活动高潮或丛集活动时间增长及频度增加现象;强震平静时段一般在火山间歇期内,且强震最长平静期与火山最长间歇期同步。由此认为,火山的大喷发--间歇性活动,显示了西太平洋火山带相关板块运动及上地幔热对流的微动态(10~20年左右尺度)的韵律性活动过程,这可能是大陆东部强震韵律性活动的“节拍器”,西太平洋火山带大喷发是大陆东部强震丛集活动的警报“哨声”,但不是“触发”或“诱发”了大陆东部的强震丛集活动。对火山带大喷发后强震丛集活动预测方法进行了探索,估计了2022年1月15日汤加火山VEI 5级大喷发后中国大陆东部强震活动趋势。The correlation between the large volcanic eruptions with VEI≥5 in the western Pacific volcanic belt since 1586 and strong earthquakes withM≥6 in the eastern China was analyzed.The results show that with the large eruption of the western Pacific volcanic belt,the strong earthquake clustering in eastern China generally lags behind half a year to five years,and after the continuous large eruption of the volcano,there may be a climax of strong seismicity or an increase in time and frequency of cluster activity in eastern China.The quiet period of strong earthquakes is generally in the volcanic interval,and the longest quiet period of strong earthquakes is synchronized with the longest volcanic interval.It is believed that the large eruption-intermittent activity of the volcano shows the rhythmic activity process of the related plate movement and the micro-dynamic(about 10-20 years scale)of the upper mantle thermal convection in the western Pacific volcanic belt,which may be the“metronome”of the rhythmic activity of strong earthquakes in eastern China.The large eruption of the western Pacific volcanic belt is the alarm“whistle”of the strong earthquake cluster activity in eastern China,rather than“trigger”or“induce”the strong earthquake cluster activity in eastern China.The prediction method of strong earthquake cluster activity after the large eruption of volcanic belt is explored,and the trend of strong seismicity in eastern China after the Tonga VEI 5 volcanic eruption on January 15th,2022 is estimated.

关 键 词：西太平洋火山带 大喷发 中国大陆东部地区 强震丛集 “哨声” 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]