基于地震灾害风险普查的概率地震危险性分析--以从化区为例  

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Seismic Disaster Risk Survey--a Case Study of Conghua District

作　　者：李翀 郜怀龙 何萍[1] 卢帮华[1] 闻则刚[1] LI Chong;GAO Huailong;HE Ping;LU Banghua;WEN Zegang(Guangdong Earthquake Agency,Guangzhou 510070,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局,广州510070

出　　处：《华南地震》2023年第2期56-68,共13页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1901602);中国地震局工程力学研究所(基本科研业务费专项)(18612);广东省科技计划项目(2019B020208014);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)创新团队项目(99147-42080024)联合资助。

摘　　要：为了厘定概率地震危险性分析方法在地震灾害风险调查与评估工作中的适用性,针对从化区,以中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2015)提供的信息为依托,给出其周边的潜在震源区划分、地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,基于地震灾害风险普查资料,利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法对其进行地震危险性分析。确定了对从化区地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,计算了从化区未来50年超越概率63%、10%、2%和100年超越概率1%的PGA分布,基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS)平台绘制了从化区4种概率下的基岩及地表地震动峰值加速度值分布图。结果表明:背景源(17)、广州、佛冈、河源、担杆岛、珠海和东莞潜在震源区对计算区内PGA起主要贡献;区内50年超越概率10%地表地震动分布中间高两边低。In order to determine the applicability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method in the investigation and assessment of earthquake disaster risk,based on the information provided by the China Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map(GB18306-2015),the potential source area division,seismicity parameters and ground motion attenuation relationship around the Conghua district are given.Based on the seismic disaster risk census data,the seismic hazard analysis of Conghua District is carried out by using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(CPSHA)method.Several potential seismic source areas and their contribution values are determined,which mainly contribute to the peak ground acceleration in Conghua District.The PGA distributions of 63%,10%,2%exceedance probability in the next 50 years and 1%exceedance probability in the next 100 years in Conghua District are calculated.Based on the GIS platform,the distribution maps of peak ground acceleration of bedrock and surface under four probabilities in Conghua District are drawn.The results show the potential seismic source areas,including background sources(17),Guangzhou,Fogang,Heyuan,Dangan Island,Zhuhai and Dongguan,contribute mainly to the PGA in the calculation area.The distribution of ground motion with 50-year exceedance probability of 10%is high in the middle and low on both sides.

关 键 词：概率地震危险性分析 潜在震源区 地震动峰值加速度 从化区 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]