“双循环”背景下我国与“一带一路”国家之间贸易形态分析  

Analysis of trade patterns between China and countries of Belt and Road Initiative under background of“Dual Circulation”

作　　者：张泽昆 王颖[1] ZHANG Zekun;WANG Ying(School of Transport&Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2023年第2期105-110,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

摘　　要：为探究“双循环”新发展格局对我国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间贸易形态的影响,基于结构变化引致形态变化的分析逻辑,建立反映贸易结构与贸易依存度间相关关系的固定效应模型,揭示“双循环”新发展格局提出前后贸易结构的变化,并据此进一步对所引致的贸易依存度和贸易流向变化进行深度挖掘。研究发现:“双循环”新发展格局提出后,我国进口产品结构更趋多元化,高附加值产品出口增势显著;与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易依存度有所提高;贸易流向更均衡,高水平参与国际分工竞合初具成效。研究结果可以为我国未来的对外贸易提供政策参考。To explore the impact of the new development pattern of“Dual Circulation”on the trade patterns between China and the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),based on the analytical logic of structural change leading to morphological change,the fixed effect model is established to reflect the relationship between trade composition and trade dependence.The model is used to reveal the change in trade composition before and after the new development pattern of“Dual Circulation”was proposed,and further to deeply mine the trade dependence and trade flow change.It is found that:after the new development pattern of“Dual Circulation”was proposed,China’s import product structure becomes more diversified,and the export of high value-added products increases significantly;the trade dependence with BRI countries increases;the trade flow becomes more balanced,and the competition and cooperation in international division of labor begins to take shape at a high level.The research results can provide policy reference for China’s future foreign trade.

关 键 词：双循环 贸易依存度 贸易结构 贸易流向 

分 类 号：F511.0[经济管理—产业经济] F752.7