中国与“一带一路”沿线国家签署FTA的贸易效应研究  

Study on the Trade Effects of FTA Signing between China and Countries along the Belt and Road

作　　者：曹翔[1] 滕聪波 张继军[1] CAO Xiang;TENG Congbo;ZHANG Jijun(School of Economics,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济学院,海南海口570228 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期75-86,共12页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目(722RC635);海南省教育厅项目(Hnjg2021-2);海南大学教育教学改革项目(hdjy2138)。

摘　　要：自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,仅有3个沿线国家同中国签署自由贸易协定,基于2000—2018年国家层面面板数据,采用双重差分模型评估自由贸易协定签署对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的真实影响,并进一步分析不同法治水平下的异质性效应及其作用机制。研究发现:(1)自由贸易协定签署显著促进了中国与“一带一路”沿线伙伴国的双边贸易,并对中国与沿线较高法治水平伙伴国双边贸易的促进作用更大;(2)自由贸易协定签署主要从需求侧、供给侧、供需交易三个方面通过经济规模、技术创新、外汇储备和贸易成本四种机制对中国与沿线不同法治水平伙伴国的双边贸易产生异质性影响,具体表现为:自由贸易协定在“一带一路”沿线较高法治水平伙伴国中主要通过扩大经济规模、增加外汇储备和降低贸易成本对其与中国双边贸易产生促进作用,未能通过促进技术创新而促进双边贸易;而在“一带一路”沿线较低法治水平伙伴国中未能通过这四种机制对双边贸易产生显著影响。据此应加大力度推进自由贸易协定在“一带一路”沿线国家的提质扩容,同时因地制宜地放宽对低法治水平国家的贸易优惠政策。With the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative,China is increasingly attaching importance to more open and high-level trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road.In this context,the signing of free trade agreements is an important way to further strengthen China’s trade cooperation with the Belt and Road countries along the route.However,as of June 2020,more than 100 countries have participated in the Belt and Road Initiative,but only 18 countries including the ASEAN,Chile,Pakistan,New Zealand,Peru,Costa Rica,South Korea,Maldives and Georgia have signed FTA with China.Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013,only three countries including South Korean,Maldives and Georgia have signed FTA with China.Using the panel data at the national level from 2000 to 2018,this paper uses a double difference model to assess the real impact of the signing of free trade agreements on bilateral trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road,and further analyzes the heterogeneity effect and its mechanism under different levels of rule of law.The results show that:(1)the signing of free trade agreements significantly promotes the bilateral trade between China and its partners along the Belt and Road;moreover,it plays a greater role in promoting bilateral trade between China and partner countries with higher legal level along the Belt and Road.(2)The signing of FTA has a heterogeneous impact on bilateral trade between China and partner countries with different rule of law levels along the Belt and Road through four mechanisms including economic scale,technological innovation,foreign exchange reserves and trade cost from three aspects:demand side,supply side and supply and demand transaction.Free trade agreements promote bilateral trade with China mainly by expanding economic scale,increasing foreign exchange reserves and reducing trade costs among partners with higher legal level along the Belt and Road,but fail to promote bilateral trade by promoting technological innovation.However,in th

关 键 词：双边贸易 自由贸易协定 贸易效应 “一带一路” 法治水平 

分 类 号：F752.4[经济管理—国际贸易] F125[经济管理—产业经济]