信心受损对贸易摩擦负面影响的放大效应——企业固定资产投资的视角  

Amplification Effect of Damaged Confidence on the Negative Impact of Trade Friction:Perspective of Enterprise Fixed Assets Investment

作　　者：马理 李丹娜 闫芳 MA Li;LI Danna;YAN Fang(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期87-97,共11页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073042);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(17JZD015)。

摘　　要：频繁的贸易摩擦对中国企业产生了负面影响,通过建立基于跨期效用的数理模型,分析贸易摩擦对企业投资的直接影响以及信心变量对影响效果的放大效应,发现贸易摩擦对企业投资产生了两轮不利冲击:第一轮为贸易摩擦通过提高关税、降低市场份额、拉长企业回款周期、加剧汇率波动对企业投资产生直接的负面影响;第二轮为贸易摩擦伤害了企业家信心和银行家信心,导致贷款申请额减少、劳动力投入下降、信贷配给增加,对企业投资产生负面影响,从而放大了贸易摩擦的负效应。建立包含贸易摩擦、企业家信心、银行家信心和企业固定资产投资的反事实结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,通过虚拟冲击抑制信心变量的传导路径进行统计检验,并与常规SVAR模型结果进行对比分析,验证信心变量对贸易摩擦的负面影响存在放大作用。据此建议稳定企业家信心与提振银行家信心,增加企业投资,以降低贸易摩擦对企业投资的负面影响。Frequent trade frictions not only directly impact the Chinese economy, such as increasing costs and reducing profits, but also may undermine confidence in economic development. The damage to confidence amplifies the impact of trade frictions on the Chinese economy, resulting in even greater negative effects. Previous literature has considered the role of confidence when analyzing the impact of trade frictions, but many have failed to incorporate confidence variables into mathematical modeling and examine the magnifying effect of confidence variables. Therefore, the transmission mechanism of trade frictions cannot be fully analyzed, especially in explaining the magnifying transmission mechanism of confidence variables on the Chinese economy in this process. Based on the analysis of theoretical mechanisms, this article first establishes a mathematical model based on intertemporal utility to analyze the direct impact of trade frictions on fixed asset investment of enterprises and the amplification effect of confidence variables. The study shows that trade frictions have two rounds of adverse impacts on enterprise investment: the first round is the direct negative impact of trade frictions on enterprise investment by increasing tariffs, reducing market share, extending the period of enterprise receivables, and exacerbating exchange rate fluctuations;the second round is the negative impact of trade frictions on enterprise investment by hurting the confidence of entrepreneurs and bankers, resulting in a decrease in loan applications, a reduction in labor input, an increase in credit rationing, thus amplifying the negative effects of trade frictions. Then, a counterfactual SVAR model incorporating trade frictions, entrepreneur confidence, banker confidence, and fixed asset investment of enterprises is established and compared with the conventional SVAR model through statistical testing by suppressing the transmission path of confidence variables through virtual shocks, which verifies the amplification effect of confiden

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 企业投资 企业家信心 银行家信心 放大效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F275[经济管理—产业经济]