基于可变修复水平的交通路网应急救援阶段恢复策略优化  

Optimization of Recovery Strategy in Emergency Rescue Stage of Traffic Network Based on Variable Repair Level

作　　者：吴晓波[1] 杜煜龙 张伟齐 李思涵 WU Xiao-bo;DU Yu-long;ZHANG Wei-qi;LI Si-han(School of Management,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《工程管理科技前沿》2023年第3期11-19,共9页Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(21&ZD131)。

摘　　要：重特大灾害往往会造成交通路段不同程度的损坏,使得交通路网陷入瘫痪,这不仅对人民生命财产安全带来隐患,更使得救援难度上升,因此恢复交通路网的连通性是首要任务。本文基于路段的可变修复水平提出应急救援阶段恢复策略优化模型,属于混合整数非线性规划问题,利用fmincon算法以及“蒙特卡罗模拟”进行1000万次循环得到最优派遣策略和恢复策略。通过算例分析,得出本文模型可以应用于大型交通路网修复工程并给出高效合理的救援策略,而且当实际中发生重大灾害后,对交通路网进行实际修复工作时,需要对实际路况进行评估,调整模型的参数从而使得模型效果达到最优。Major disasters often cause varying degrees of damage to traffic network and paralyze it,which not only brings hidden dangers to the safety of people's lives and property,but also makes rescue more difficult.Therefore,restoring the connectivity of traffic network is the primary task.Based on the variable repair level of the road,this paper puts forward the optimization model of the recovery strategy in the emergency rescue stage,which belongs to the mixed integer nonlinear programming problem.The optimal dispatch strategy and recovery strategy are obtained by using fmincon algorithm and"Monte Carlo simulation"for 10 million cycles.Through the case study,it is concluded that the model can be applied to the large-scale traffic network repair project and give an efficient and reasonable rescue strategy.Moreover,when a disaster occurs in practice,it is necessary to evaluate the actual road conditions and adjust the parameters of the model in order to achieve optimal model performance.

关 键 词：恢复策略 混合整数非线性规划 蒙特卡罗模拟 可变修复水平 交通路网应急恢复 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]