北斗卫星导航产业发展态势的多维度预测方法  

Multi-dimensional Forecasting Method for Development Trend of Beidou Satellite Navigation Industry

作　　者：柳占杰 孙艺新 袁嘉琪 刘哲 唐雪华[3] 张永生 高明哲 LIU Zhanjie;SUN Yixin;YUAN Jiaqi;LIU Zhe;TANG Xuehua;ZHANG Yongsheng;GAO Mingzhe(State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company,Shanghai 200437,China;School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China;Institute of Central China Development,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209 [2]国网上海市电力公司,上海200437 [3]武汉大学遥感信息工程学院,湖北武汉430079 [4]武汉大学中国中部发展研究院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《应用科学学报》2023年第3期500-514,共15页Journal of Applied Sciences

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(No.SGSHDK00HZJS2100144)资助。

摘　　要：针对北斗市场发展过程中不同维度市场产值的预测需求,从整体产值、产业链、上市公司市值等3个不同维度构建了北斗市场产值预测模型。从整体市场产值预测需求出发,研究对比了不同预测模型的产值预测方法及精度,得到不同数据情况下的模型选择参考;基于产业链的产值发展数据,采用不同的经济预测模型,实现单一产业链或整体产值的统计预测;基于上市公司市场产值的预测方法,对特定上市公司、整体北斗市场等不同维度和层次的市场产值进行跟踪和预测。最后,通过实验验证分析了不同模型和方法的精度和可行性,分析在不同数据基础和预测需求条件下的适用方法,为满足不同维度的北斗市场产值预测提供数据和决策支持。Aiming at the forecasting demands for different dimensions of market output value during the development of Beidou market,an output value forecasting model for Beidou market is constructed from three different dimensions,including overall output value,industry chain,and market value of listed companies.This paper studies and compares the output value prediction methods and accuracy of different forecasting models from the perspective of the overall market output forecasting demand,and obtains model selection references under different conditions.Then,based on the output value data of the industrial chain,different economic forecasting models are used to make statistical prediction of a single industrial chain or the overall output value.Finally,we track and forecast the market output value of specific listed companies and the overall Beidou market in different dimensions and levels.Finally,the accuracy and feasibility of different models and methods are analyzed through experimental verification,and the applicable methods are investigated under different data bases and forecast demands.Data and decision support are provided for Beidou market output value forecast in different dimensions.

关 键 词：北斗卫星导航产业 灰色系统理论 LOGISTIC方程 求和自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：P228.4[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]