中国经济双循环的贸易利得分析  

The Analysis on Trade Gains of China’s Economic Dual Circulation

作　　者：张少军[1] 方玉文 李善同[2] ZHANG Shaojun;FANG Yuwen;LI Shantong(School of Economics,Xiamen University;Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy,Development Research Center of the State Council)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系,361005 [2]国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部,100010

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第4期4-22,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873112)和国家自然科学基金重点项目(71733003)的资助。

摘　　要：加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化,审时度势作出的重大决策。贸易利得是一国内外循环态势的重要指标。本文基于多部门投入产出联系的贸易利得量化模型,结合核密度估计和马尔科夫链,测算了1987—2017年中国经济双循环的贸易利得,研究发现:第一,中国内循环的贸易利得呈下降趋势,中国外循环的贸易利得呈先上升后下降的趋势;但中国内循环的贸易利得依然大于外循环的贸易利得;第二,相对于外循环,中国内循环贸易利得的持续能力、空间关联效应和升级潜力都更大;第三,中国内循环贸易利得和外循环贸易利得之间,不存在正向的空间关联效应。在习近平经济思想指导下,统筹对内开放和对外开放,打通双循环之间的堵点,有助于实现双循环贸易利得的良性互动,加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。Along with the foreign circumstances being increasingly complicated, the positive effect of international circulation on China's economic development has begun to weaken. Therefore, we need to create a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the mainstay so that both circulations can boost each other. It is an important premise that accurately measuring the interprovincial trade gains of the domestic circulation and the international trade gains of international circulation. For a large economy like China, it is particularly important to measure and compare two trade gains of dual circulation: First, it is helpful to make full use of both international and domestic markets and resources, and then find the driving force of China's economic development as a whole. Second, it is helpful to promote the sharing of two trade gains between different regions and between different sectors, thereby achieving common prosperity. Finally, it is helpful to form a positive interaction in which two trade gains boost each other, and then help China deal with a series of risks related to reform, development and stability.Compared with the research on the trade gains of international circulation, few studies focus on the trade gains of the domestic circulation. We use China's provincial input-output table firstly, based on the trade gains quantification model of multi-sectoral input-output linkage, combined with kernel density estimation and Markov chain, to measure the trade gains of China's economic dual circulation from 1987 to 2017. The main findings are as follows: First, the trade gains of China's domestic circulation show a downward trend, while the trade gains of China's international circulation show a trend of rising first and then falling. China's trade gains of domestic circulation are greater than trade gains of international circulation. Second, compared with the trade gains of international circulation, the trade gains of China's domestic circulation have greater sustainability, spatial correlation effec

关 键 词：贸易利得 双循环 多部门投入产出模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]