中国制造业技术进步方向的识别与估计  

Identification and Estimation of the Direction of Technological Change of Chinese Manufacturing

作　　者：尹恒[1] 李辉 张道远 YIN Heng;LI Hui;ZHANG Daoyuan(National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China;School of Finance,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,100872 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第4期58-76,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学面上项目(72173131,71873132)的资助。

摘　　要：技术进步方向是决定经济增长和要素分配的关键因素之一。然而目前学界对于技术进步方向的定量研究仍然十分欠缺。本文尝试在生产函数中同时引入希克斯中性生产率和劳动增强型生产率,直接在微观层面识别和估计技术进步方向。综合使用1999—2016年中国工业企业数据与全国税收调查数据的估计结果显示,样本期内中国制造业技术进步具有明显的偏向性特征:劳动增强型生产率增速保持稳定,年均增长10%,带动产出年均增长1.0%;希克斯中性生产率带动产出年均增长2.5%,但金融危机过后尤其是2011年后增速明显放缓。这意味着随着时间演进,有偏技术进步对产出的相对贡献不断提高,并在样本后期成为产出增长的主要源泉。估计结果还显示,制造业效率的提高主要源于企业自身成长,行业内资源配置的贡献有限,配置效率仍然存在较大改善空间。本文刻画了21世纪近20年中国制造业技术变迁的整体图景,可以为新常态下推动技术创新、促进高质量发展的政策选择提供重要的经验支撑。Numerous theoretical studies emphasize that the direction of technological change is a crucial factor influencing economic growth and resource allocation. However, the actual direction of technological change remains an empirical question. Although some literature provides evidence of biased technological change based on macro-level regional or industry data, the analysis method based on representative enterprises averages out rich heterogeneity information at the micro level. In recent years, with the continuous development of measurement methods and the increasing abundance of microscopic data, it has become necessary to identify the direction of technological change at the micro level. This paper aims to make efforts in this regard.Using the multidimensional productivity estimation framework proposed by Doraszelski Jaumandreu(2018), this paper develops a new method for estimating the micro-productivity structure and explores the reliable estimation of labor-augmenting productivity and Hicks-neutral productivity to directly identify the direction of technological change at the micro level. This paper extends the assumptions of the current literature on the estimation of the direction of technological change by considering the multidimensional firm heterogeneity in terms of both cost and demand and integrating the estimation of production and demand functions in a single system. This ensures that our estimation of the direction of technological change is based on a more reliable microscopic foundation. Moreover, our estimation method does not require firm-level output and factor price information, and the databases used in general micro-productivity estimation can meet this requirement and have a relatively wide scope of application.Based on this estimation method, we comprehensively use Chinese Industrial Enterprise Data and National Tax Survey Data to estimate the basic parameters of the model, and analyze the technological change in China's manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2016. On the one hand, we find th

关 键 词：技术进步方向 生产率 企业异质性 结构估计 

分 类 号：F424.3[经济管理—产业经济]