Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy  

作　　者：LU Chuanyi CHEN Wenying 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [2]Institute of Economics,Energy and Environment,Tsinghua university,Beijing 100084,China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities》2022年第2期212-244,共33页中国高等学校学术文摘·经济学（英文版）

基　　金：the research progress and outcomes of the national key research and development program"Simulation Research on China's Climate Change Response and Path of Coordinated Governance of Economic and Social Environment"(No.2018YFC1509006).

摘　　要：At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)in 2020,China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect.This paper,based on Energy,Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model(TECGE),a dynamic computable general equilibrium model,carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China's future macro economy.By setting up four scenarios,namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons,10.7 billion tons,10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030,2027,2025,and 2023,it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy.The findings show that,compared with the 2030 benchmark,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the higher the carbon tax prices,and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables,such as aggregate consumption,aggregate imports and exports decline,the share of the tertiary industry increases.That is,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the more macroeconomic variables decline,and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises.This paper,using computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect,makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：carbon peaking ahead of schedule computable general equilibrium(CGE) carbon tax macro economy 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124[经济管理—世界经济]