把握机会窗口期减缓气候变化对中国居民健康影响  

Seizing the window of opportunity to mitigate the impact of climate change on the health of Chinese residents

作　　者：蔡闻佳[1] 张弛 张诗卉[1] 艾思奇 白玉琪[1] 鲍俊哲 常楠 陈彬[6] 陈慧琪 程亮亮 崔学勤 戴瀚程 Bawuerjiang Danna 底骞 董伟[10] 董文轩 窦德景 范维澄[11,12] 范星 房小怡 高仝 高源[17] 耿阳[18] 关大博 郭亚菲 Ian Hamilton[20] 胡艺馨 华峻翊 黄存瑞 黄弘 黄建斌[1] 蒋俏蕾[8] 姜晓朋 柯丕煜 Gregor Kiesewetter Pete Lampard 李传玺 李瑞奇 李双利 梁璐 林波荣 林华亮[3] 刘欢 刘起勇[17] 刘小波[17] 刘心远[7] 刘昱甫 刘钊 刘竹[1] 楼书含 鲁晨曦 罗勇[1] 罗震宇 马伟[26,31] Alice McGushin 牛彦麟 任超[22] 阮增良 Wolfgang Schöpp 单钰理 苏婧 孙韬淳 王灿 王琼 文三妹 谢杨[35] 熊辉[36] 徐冰 徐朦 颜钰 杨军[37] 杨廉平 杨秀 俞乐[1] 岳玉娟 曾仪娉[39] 张镜[8] 张少辉[24,35] 张曜 张仲宸 赵继尧 赵亮 赵梦真 赵琦 赵哲[26] 周景博 朱征宏 陈冯富珍[9] 宫鹏 Wenjia Cai;Chi Zhang;Shihui Zhang;Siqi Ai;Yuqi Bai;Junzhe Bao;Nan Chang;Bin Chen;Huiqi Chen;Liangliang Cheng;Xueqin Cui;Hancheng Dai;Bawuerjiang Danna;Qian Di;Wei Dong;Wenxuan Dong;Dejing Dou;Weicheng Fan;Xing Fan;Xiaoyi Fang;Tong Gao;Yuan Gao;Yang Geng;Dabo Guan;Yafei Guo;Ian Hamilton;Yixin Hu;Junyi Hua;Cunrui Huang;Hong Huang;Jianbin Huang;Qiaolei Jiang;Xiaopeng Jiang;Piyu Ke;Gregor Kiesewetter;Pete Lampard;Chuanxi Li;Ruiqi Li;Shuangli Li;Lu Liang;Borong Lin;Hualiang Lin;Huan Liu;Qiyong Liu;Xiaobo Liu;Xinyuan Liu;Yufu Liu;Zhao Liu;Zhu Liu;Shuhan Lou;Chenxi Lu;Yong Luo;Zhenyu Luo;Wei Ma;Alice McGushin;Yanlin Niu;Chao Ren;Zengliang Ruan;Wolfgang Schöpp;Yuli Shan;Jing Su;Taochun Sun;Can Wang;Qiong Wang;Sanmei Wen;Yang Xie;Hui Xiong;Bing Xu;Meng Xu;Yu Yan;Jun Yang;Lianping Yang;Xiu Yang;Le Yu;Yujuan Yue;Yiping Zeng;Jing Zhang;Shaohui Zhang;Yao Zhang;Zhongchen Zhang;Jiyao Zhao;Liang Zhao;Mengzhen Zhao;Qi Zhao;Zhe Zhao;Jingbo Zhou;Zhenghong Zhu;Margaret Chan Fung Fu-chun;Peng Gong(Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Journalism and Communication,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Vanke School of Public Health,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Baidu Research,Beijing 100091,China;Institute of Environment and Ecology,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250013,China;Meteorological Impact and Risk Re

机构地区：[1]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084 [2]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [3]中山大学公共卫生学院,广州510080 [4]郑州大学公共卫生学院,郑州450001 [5]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166 [6]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [7]北京大学环境工程学院,北京100871 [8]清华大学新闻与传播学院,北京100084 [9]清华大学万科公共卫生学院,北京100084 [10]浙江大学地球科学学院,杭州310058 [11]清华大学公共安全研究所,北京100084 [12]清华大学工程物理系,北京100084 [13]百度研究院,北京100091 [14]山东师范大学环境与生态研究院,济南250013 [15]中国气象科学研究院气象影响与风险研究中心,北京100086 [16]山东师范大学商学院,济南250013 [17]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,传染病预防控制国家重点实验室,北京102206 [18]清华大学建筑学院,北京100084 [19]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与人群健康重点实验室,环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京102206 [20]Energy Institute,University College London,London WC1E 6BT,UK [21]南方科技大学统计与数据科学系,深圳518055 [22]香港大学建筑学院,中国香港999077 [23]世界卫生组织驻华代表处,北京100600 [24]Pollution Management Research Group,Energy,Climate,and Environment Program,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA),Schlossplatz 1-A-2361 Laxenburg,Austria [25]Department of Health Sciences,University of York,York YO105DD,Canada [26]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系,济南250002 [27]中国科学技术大学计算机科学与技术学院,合肥230027 [28]Department of Geography and the Environment,University of North Texas,Denton TX 76203-5017,USA [29]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [30]Geography,College of Life and Environmental Sciences,University of Exeter,Exeter EX12LU,UK [31]山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心,济南250002 [32]Institute for Global Health,Un

出　　处：《科学通报》2023年第15期1899-1905,共7页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：英国惠康基金会(Wellcome Trust,209734/Z/17/Z);国家自然科学基金(72091514,72140002,72104029);唐仲英基金会和全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目“全球能源与大气环境和人类健康协同发展的综合路径评估方法与实用化模型研究”提供的资金和战略支持。

摘　　要：随着中国总人口的不断增加以及改革开放以来经济的飞速发展,中国面临来自气候变化的健康威胁也在不断上升.与此同时,中国也处于一个独特的机遇窗口期,如果能够有效应对气候变化带来的健康风险,将造福今后几代人的健康.反之,如果没有及时、充分的应对措施,气候变化对中国居民健康和生命的威胁将与日俱增.为了推动更及时且有利于改善人群健康的气候应对行动,由清华大学牵头建立的柳叶刀倒计时亚洲中心在全球柳叶刀倒计时工作的基础上[1,2],从2020年开始,聚焦气候变化对中国人群健康的影响进行全面且系统的评估[3,4].The health threats posed by climate change in China are increasing rapidly.Each province faces different health risks.Without a timely and adequate response,climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate and even prevent the achievement of the Healthy and Beautiful China initiatives.The 2021 China Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change is the first annual update of China’s Report of the Lancet Countdown.It comprehensively assesses the impact of climate change on the health of Chinese households and the measures China has taken.Invited by the Lancet committee,Tsinghua University led the writing of the report and cooperated with 25 relevant institutions in and outside of China.The report includes 25 indicators within five major areas(climate change impacts,exposures,and vulnerability;adaptation,planning,and resilience for health;mitigation actions and health co-benefits;economics and finance;and public and political engagement)and a policy brief.This 2021 China policy brief contains the most urgent and relevant indicators focusing on provincial data:The increasing health risks of climate change in China;mixed progress in responding to climate change.In 2020,the heatwave exposures per person in China increased by 4.51 d compared with the 1986–2005 average,resulting in an estimated 92%increase in heatwave-related deaths.The resulting economic cost of the estimated 14500 heatwave-related deaths in 2020 is US$176 million.Increased temperatures also caused a potential 31.5 billion h in lost work time in 2020,which is equivalent to 1.3%of the work hours of the total national workforce,with resulting economic losses estimated at 1.4%of China’s annual gross domestic product.For adaptation efforts,there has been steady progress in local adaptation planning and assessment in 2020,urban green space growth in 2020,and health emergency management in 2019.12 of 30 provinces reported that they have completed,or were developing,provincial health adaptation plans.Urban green space

关 键 词：减缓气候变化 人群健康 柳叶刀 居民健康 窗口期 倒计时 应对措施 把握机会 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] P467[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]